Bitcoin’s RSI has hit a multi-month high, signalling potential price gains despite macroeconomic hurdles. Analysis indicates a bullish divergence developing as RSI trends upward while BTC price declines. Trader insights suggest signs of a long-term price floor, though macro conditions raise concerns for April performance. While challenges persist, factors like increased global money supply may eventually favour upward price movement.
Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a critical moment as the relative strength index (RSI) reaches its highest levels since January, indicating potential further price gains. Historical data highlights that BTC bull runs typically commence with notable RSI signals. Over the past month, while BTC/USD created lower lows, RSI demonstrated bullish divergence by trending upward, establishing higher lows. Recently, the daily RSI crossed above the 50 mark and successfully retested it as support, leading to new multi-month highs.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted these developments, highlighting how the RSI has maintained its upward trajectory while retesting previous resistance as support. He indicated emerging signs of a bullish divergence, with BTC’s price positioned just beneath a significant downward trendline. Rekt also suggested that RSI movements indicate a long-term price floor around $70,000, reinforcing bullish sentiments.
Analyst Kevin Svenson echoed similar sentiments regarding the weekly RSI, stating that confirmed breakouts tend to be reliable indicators of macro shifts. He mentioned that confirmation is forthcoming, describing current weekly RSI trends as promising. Market participants are also considering Bitcoin’s positioning against a long-term downward-sloping trendline that originated from its all-time highs earlier in the year.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin faces challenges stemming from broader macroeconomic factors that could hinder its performance. Economists point to difficulties related to the ongoing US trade wars and a general decline in risk assets, suggesting limited capital influx into BTC as it remains vulnerable to market conditions that mirror stock performance. Timothy Peterson, a network economist, forecasted a disappointing April, remarking on Bitcoin’s underperformance against its median yearly price path.
His analysis, accompanied by a median price chart, indicated that this April falls within a “below” average month, largely due to prevailing interest rates and other significant economic risks. While current conditions appear challenging, some analysts believe that underlying bullish factors, like increased global M2 money supply and a weakening US dollar index, could eventually bolster Bitcoin’s prospects.
