Bitcoin’s recent price surge to $85,630 follows Donald Trump’s relaxed tariff stance. However, it faces a potential “death cross” risk that may lead to a price decline. In contrast, gold continues to thrive, reaching record highs as a safe haven asset, while demand from major economies fuels its ascent. The Swiss franc has also become a popular safe haven.
Bitcoin’s price has recently climbed, reaching $85,630 on April 15, which marks a 15.2% increase from this month’s low. This upturn follows Donald Trump’s softer approach towards tariffs, including a 90-day pause affecting over 70 countries. Moreover, exemptions on some electronics and semiconductors were announced, resulting in increased positivity in stock futures tied to major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones.
Despite the recent price recovery, Bitcoin faces the looming danger of a “death cross,” a bearish indicator emerging when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average. Currently, the gap between these averages stands at just 472 points, suggesting an imminent crossover that could see Bitcoin retest its low of $74,500, approximately 13% below existing levels. Conversely, if prices surge above both moving averages, it could signal an upward trend towards $90,000.
Compounding the risk, the S&P 500 index has also formed a death cross, indicating potential declines. Historical data shows that similar occurrences in 2022 resulted in a 17% drop. Given that both Bitcoin and equities are classified as risk-on assets, negative movements in the stock market could adversely affect Bitcoin prices.
In contrast, gold has maintained a strong performance as a safe-haven investment, soaring over 20% this year to reach $3,245, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its price target to $3,700. The rally is supported by robust demand from central banks and retail investors worldwide, notably from nations like India and China, which continue to amass gold. Influential gold ETFs, such as GLD and IAU, are experiencing increased inflows, indicating a preference for gold over American stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin.
Additionally, the Swiss franc has emerged as a leading safe haven as it has climbed to its highest value in more than a decade. This trend underscores a shift in investor sentiment towards safer financial instruments amidst ongoing market volatility.
