Bitcoin Price Analysis: $65K as Potential Market Mean and Support

Analyst James Check predicts that a drop to $65,000 for Bitcoin could indicate a true market bottom and signal the end of the current bear run. Meanwhile, a price around $50,000 may provide strong support as it aligns with a $1 trillion market cap. Check also discusses the potential for sustained trading ranges in 2024.

Analyst James Check indicates that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) at $65,000 may signal the onset of the end of the current bear run. This price point represents the average cost basis of investors, suggesting significant unrealized losses for long-term holders if BTC drops to such levels. Notably, a $1 trillion market capitalisation — around $50,000 per Bitcoin — is anticipated to offer robust support.

James Check, while noting that a bottom may have already been reached, foresees that a true capitulation event is necessary to establish a definitive low for Bitcoin. This capitulation could coincide with a price decline to the $65,000 mark, which Check terms the “true market mean.” At this juncture, average investors may start to experience discomfort due to unrealized losses, affecting even those who have held Bitcoin for five or more years.

Check posits that while he expects notable decreases from $65,000, strong support levels exist around $49,000-$50,000. This range correlates with the anticipated launch of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and the $1 trillion market cap. A fall towards $40,000 is deemed improbable unless a global recession occurs.

Finally, Check highlights an extended phase of “chopsolidation” in 2024, where Bitcoin is predicted to trade within a broad range of $50,000 to $70,000, thereby cementing a sturdy foundation of support within the market.