Bitcoin’s Resilience Amidst Macro Obstacles: Insights from Bitwise CIO

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, argues that Bitcoin is poised to rise, provided macroeconomic headwinds are addressed. As of April 14, 2025, Bitcoin’s price was stable at $84,379, presenting a marginal change of 0.07%. His analysis highlights Bitcoin’s resilience amidst declining traditional markets, suggesting a transitional phase in its economic role as it increasingly resembles a safe asset like gold.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, believes Bitcoin displays a propensity for upward movement, contingent on the resolution of macroeconomic challenges. In his investor note from April 15, 2025, he noted that Bitcoin’s price held steady at around $84,379, reflecting a marginal change of just 0.07% over the past month amidst significant geopolitical shifts, including the establishment of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and global tariff impositions by President Trump.

Despite Bitcoin’s stagnation, its performance contrasts sharply with the declining traditional markets, where the S&P 500 plummeted 12% since February’s peak. Remarkably, Bitcoin only fell 12.4% during that same timeframe, challenging previous patterns where it suffered deeper losses during market downturns. For example, during the 2022 correction, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 58.3% compared to a 24.5% decline in the S&P 500, indicating a new resilience in its recent performance.

Hougan highlighted the divergent behaviour of Bitcoin during market corrections. Historical trends show that Bitcoin previously experienced more severe declines compared to equities during downturns. However, its recent performance closely mirrors stock losses, suggesting a transformative phase for the cryptocurrency. While critics argue that this performance do not categorically classify Bitcoin as a hedge asset, Hougan noted that its stability around $80,000 amidst turbulence is indicative of its enduring capacity

The cryptocurrency is evolving under two contrasting forces: as a risk asset with high volatility and substantial upside potential, and as a hedge similar to gold. In its formative years, Bitcoin was primarily viewed as a high-risk investment, susceptible to faster sell-offs compared to stocks. However, with growing corporate adoption and institutional incorporation into diversified portfolios, it is being perceived more as “digital gold.”

Despite these potential shifts, Hougan cautioned against neglecting current macro uncertainties. Equity markets may still be on a downward trajectory, which could expose Bitcoin to vulnerabilities during extreme market volatility. Additionally, while gold maintains its status as a conventional safe haven, Bitcoin’s capability in such situations remains undeclared. Yet, Hougan remarked on Bitcoin’s resilience as it trades above $80,000, despite the unfolding global economic chaos.

He concluded that the current dynamics of Bitcoin as a macro asset are uncertain and susceptible to the influences of tariff escalations or shifts in monetary policy. At the time of his note, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $85,200, and Hougan positioned the cryptocurrency as undergoing significant evolutionary changes in the financial ecosystem.