Bullish Signals for Bitcoin: US Exchanges Show Potential for 2025 Rally

US exchanges may regain dominance in Bitcoin volumes, potentially triggering a rally in late 2025. A recent trend indicates an uptick in transfers on US platforms, coinciding with critical SMA breakouts. Bitcoin’s value appears undervalued given reduced exchange reserves and SSR levels below 2021. Caution is suggested at current prices near $86,000 amidst vital resistance levels.

Recent analysis suggests that US-based cryptocurrency exchanges may regain their influence over Bitcoin’s transfer volumes, potentially igniting a bullish rally for BTC in the latter half of 2025. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr points out a notable decrease in the dominance of US exchanges following Bitcoin’s all-time high in January, reflected in the “US vs. offshore ratio,” which measures transfer volumes between these exchanges.

The accompanying chart indicates a trend reversal, showing an uptick in BTC transfer volumes on US exchanges, mirroring patterns seen in past bull markets. A crucial technical indicator is the convergence of the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) surpassing the 365-day SMA, a signal that has historically preceded substantial price increases. For instance, this crossover occurred at $60,000, leading to a price rally within a week, suggesting imminent upward movement for BTC.

Further analysis by on-chain expert Boris Vest suggests that Bitcoin is currently undervalued. In a post on CryptoQuant, he noted that exchange reserves have declined to levels not seen since 2018, with only 2.43 million BTC currently held on exchanges, contrasting with 3.4 million in 2021. This indicates a trend of long-term holding and reduced supply, bolstering the case for sustained buying pressure.

The Bitcoin stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) stands at 14.3, signalling considerable purchasing power, which remains below 2021 levels. According to Boris, this underlines Bitcoin’s undervaluation and supports expectations of ongoing bullish trends and purchasing activity within the market.

Furthermore, markets analyst Dom has observed a breakout from a prolonged downtrend for Bitcoin, noting that BTC has transitioned the monthly VWAP into support for the first time since January. The VWAP, a critical technical indicator that averages prices based on trade volume, helps traders identify support or resistance levels. Dom remarked that Bulls have maintained this momentum for four consecutive days, a development not seen in recent months, with potential for Bitcoin to reach $90,000 if it surpasses recent highs.

Contrarily, Alphractal founder João Wedson advised caution at Bitcoin’s current pricing near $86,000. He advocates waiting for a market pullback following a breakout above this threshold, to prevent falling into a bearish trend. Alphractal’s analysis designates $86,300 as a significant resistance zone, with implications of a potential bull trap.

This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations; readers are encouraged to conduct their own research to make informed decisions about investment and trading risks.