Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Resistance and Support Levels to Monitor

Bitcoin struggled to break the $86,000 resistance as Fed Chair Powell indicated no immediate rate cuts are forthcoming. With ongoing market uncertainty, Bitcoin’s price is stuck between $75,000 and $86,400, while analysts focus on key levels for future movements. Major attention is on maintaining $86,000 as support towards a potential rise to $90,000 or facing declines below $80,000, possibly retesting prior lows.

On April 16, Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to break past the $86,000 resistance level as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed doubts over early interest rate cuts. Since April 9, BTC has recorded daily highs between $75,000 and $86,400 but has not closed above $86,000, leaving market analysts keen to determine the asset’s future trajectory as it remains range-bound on the 4-hour chart.

Polymarket currently indicates an 88% probability that interest rates will remain steady between 4.25% and 4.50%, with only a 10% chance of a minor 0.25% rate cut. Analysts believe that any negative price action stemming from unchanged interest rates may already be factored into the market. Powell conveyed a cautious stance, asserting the necessity for additional economic data before any policy changes.

During his speech in Chicago, Powell addressed potential risks associated with President Trump’s tariffs, which may increase inflation and hinder economic growth. He signalled a need for a restrictive policy to stave off persistent inflation, implying that immediate rate cuts were unlikely given market volatility.

In reaction, Trump criticized Powell, asserting that he was consistently “too late and wrong” regarding his assessments and labelled his April 16 report a “complete mess.” Concurrently, Polymarket shows a 46% likelihood that Bitcoin could reach $90,000 by April 30, while the chances for a new record high above $110,000 remain below 5%.

To gain upward momentum, Bitcoin must convert the $86,000 resistance into support and aim for higher levels like $90,000. Achieving this requires BTC/USD to reclaim the 200-day exponential moving average at $87,740, a benchmark lost on March 9. A significant supply zone also exists up to $91,240, which BTC must surpass to facilitate a rally towards $100,000.

If the bears manage to maintain resistance at $86,000, the likelihood of declines below $80,000 increases. Critical price levels to monitor are between $76,000 and the previous range lows of $74,000, corresponding to the prior all-time high from March 2024. If Bitcoin descends below this, a retest of the $67,817 level from the US election day could ensue, reversing the gains made from the so-called Trump pump.

Onchain analyst James Check remarked that the real bottom for Bitcoin lies at the “true market mean,” approximately around $65,000. He remarked that the $75,000 range requires vigorous defence from bullish traders, or else the market may revert to a consolidation phase potentially heading lower towards $65,000, a level that aligns closely with Michael Saylor’s average cost basis of about $67,500.

This article serves solely for informational purposes and does not provide investment advice. Each investment decision carries inherent risks, and readers should conduct mutual due diligence before engaging with any financial asset.