Bitcoin Price Recovery Amid Weakening Futures Sentiment in 2025

Bitcoin price has shown volatility, struggling to surpass its previous high while recently dipping to yearly lows. Despite a small recovery, futures sentiment continues to weaken, indicating caution among traders. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains bearish, reflecting macroeconomic concerns. However, improving fundamentals may support Bitcoin’s recovery, as shown by increasing on-chain metrics.

In Q1 of 2025, Bitcoin experienced significant price fluctuations while aiming to reach its all-time high exceeding $109,000. Unfortunately, at the commencement of Q2, it fell to annual lows around $74,500. Although a small recovery has been noted recently, futures traders are displaying an increasingly cautious sentiment.

CryptoQuant’s recent evaluation indicates that Bitcoin’s notable surge from November 2024 to February 2025 was not accompanied by a stable increase in futures market sentiment. This sentiment peaked briefly during the rally but subsequently declined, suggesting increased caution among traders. Since February 2025, this sentiment has further weakened, diverging from price levels that hover in the $70k-$80k range.

This trend highlights growing apprehension in the derivatives market, likely due to macroeconomic instability, regulatory changes, or expectations of a market correction. Current technical analysis shows the sentiment index at approximately 0.4, near a critical support threshold of 0.2 and encountering resistance around 0.8. Such positioning indicates a bearish sentiment in the futures market, which might signal an accumulation or potential consolidation phase. Without new catalysts, low sentiment levels could generate downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

Similarly, Reflexivity Research notes that this week’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 35, indicative of a cautiously bearish outlook. While it has stabilised compared to the previous week, reflecting reduced extreme fear, investor sentiment remains wary in light of macroeconomic concerns. A slight increase in the index may indicate that panic is subsiding, potentially paving the way for a more optimistic market atmosphere, contingent upon positive developments.

Additional data suggests that improving fundamentals and alleviated global tariff issues are propelling Bitcoin’s price recovery. On-chain metrics further support this growth trajectory; the Network Realised Profit/Loss (NRPL) is rising, while a reduction in exchange supply indicates a decline in short-term selling pressure.