Coinbase’s David Duong reports signs of a long-term crypto bear market. Both Bitcoin and the Coinbase 50 Index have dropped below their 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish trends. He suggests cautious investment and anticipates potential price stability by mid-2025, with a possible bullish turn from July to September 2024.
Recent analysis from Coinbase’s lead researcher, David Duong, suggests the emergence of indicators pointing to a possible long-term bear market in cryptocurrency. Specifically, both Bitcoin (BTC) and the Coinbase 50 Index (COIN50), which measures the performance of the top 50 digital assets, have fallen below their 200-day moving averages. This trend aligns with a decrease in overall crypto market capitalisation and a drop in venture capital investment in the sector, both precursors to a potential crypto winter.
Duong indicates that as Bitcoin increasingly solidifies its role as a ‘store of value’, a comprehensive assessment of the broader market activity within cryptocurrency is necessary. This approach will help better categorise bull and bear markets, especially with the growing diversity in the asset’s sectors. Should a bear market establish itself, a potentially bullish reversal could occur between July and September this year.
In light of these observations, it is prudent to adopt a cautious investment stance during this period. Despite the current bearish indicators, there is a belief that cryptocurrency prices could stabilise by the end of the second quarter of 2025, setting the stage for a stronger third quarter of that year.
