Bitcoin’s price stays around $84,000 as it struggles to break the critical $86,000 resistance. Futures market sentiment remains bearish, contrary to the price rebound. Trading volumes and ETF flows indicate weak demand from investors, reflecting hesitance in the market. Supply-side metrics also suggest low liquidity, raising concerns about support for a sustainable rally.
Bitcoin is currently facing strong resistance at the $86,000 mark, which is crucial for confirming a bullish reversal. The currency had recently bounced back from $75,000, trading at approximately $83,996. However, despite a minor recovery, key indicators suggest that caution remains in the market, with the daily exponential moving average set at $85,300 acting as an immediate barrier.
The $86,000 resistance features significant selling pressure and numerous technical indicators that complicate upward movement. Analysts have identified two dense supply zones located between $81,440 and $86,430, with sell orders concentrated between $86,300 and $86,500 acting as a pivotal ceiling. Alphractal’s Alpha Price model confirms this view, while any breakthrough above $86,300 could generate a shift towards more bullish sentiment.
The Bitcoin futures market depicts a contrasting sentiment despite the recent price recovery, with the Futures Sentiment Index down at 0.4 since February, indicating no strong confidence in an uptrend. Notably, this index was recorded at 0.8 during more bullish periods, suggesting a disconnect which may hinder upward momentum.
Trading volumes reflect a lack of investor enthusiasm as spot volumes remain around 30,000 BTC per day, with derivatives markets at around 400,000 BTC. These figures are significantly lower than those during the mid-2021 rally, implying current market activity is not driven by robust demand. Additionally, there have been substantial ETF outflows, with spot Bitcoin ETFs losing over $870 million since early April, underscoring the limited appetite for fresh investments.
On the supply side, Bitcoin liquidity appears reduced, as indicated by a mere 0.80% monthly growth in realised cap, down from 0.83%. BTC balances on exchanges have also dwindled to 2.6 million coins, the lowest level since November 2018. While low balances can lessen immediate selling pressure, they may also curtail liquidity necessary for rapid gains.
Long-term predictions for Bitcoin have been met with scepticism. Analyst Crypto Seth suggests a price surge to $140,000–$180,000 by 2025, followed by a dip to the $50,000–$70,000 range in 2026. However, veteran trader Peter Brandt views these projections as unreliable and cautions that historical trendlines do not guarantee future movements. Therefore, without genuine spot volume backing any push over $86,300, the Bitcoin market remains cautious rather than assured.
