Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $85,000 with a 1% gain in the last 24 hours, yet faces considerable resistance for further gains. Its realised market cap has reached $872 billion, but monthly growth has slowed to 0.9%, indicating cautious market sentiment. Short-term holders currently face potential selling pressure as their realised price is $91,600. Regional trading behaviour differs, with bullish sentiment in the US and caution in Korea. Varied macroeconomic conditions present potential challenges and opportunities for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently valued at approximately $85,000, reflecting a 1% gain over the previous 24 hours. Despite this upward movement, BTC encounters considerable resistance, preventing further ascension. The cryptocurrency’s realised market capitalisation has surged to an all-time high of $872 billion; however, the monthly growth rate has decelerated to 0.9%, indicating a cautious market sentiment amidst elevated valuations.
The all-time high realised cap illustrates significant market success. However, data from Glassnode reveals worrisome trends, as the monthly growth rate has declined to 0.9%, implying dwindling capital inflow and subdued investor activity. This inflection point suggests a possible consolidation phase as the market seeks a new balance following substantial profit realisation.
Recent Bitcoin purchasers face unfavourable market conditions, as indicated by CryptoQuant data showing a short-term holder realised price of $91,600, well above the current trading level. If recent investors decide to sell to mitigate losses, this could lead to additional downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. Notably, the Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) ratio remains below 1, signalling negative performance for new entrants.
Bitcoin’s price must surpass the $85,000 mark imminently to maintain an optimistic trajectory. Since April 11, BTC has fluctuated within the range of $82,750 and $85,440, with significant moving averages presenting resistance on daily charts yet offering support on shorter timeframes.
Regional trading patterns have produced divergent market sentiments; the Coinbase premium signals bullish sentiment in the US, fostering potential price increases. Conversely, the Kimchi premium index reflects a decrease in the South Korean market’s enthusiasm, indicating diminished retail involvement, which may explain Bitcoin’s recent price volatility.
Macroeconomic factors present conflicting signals for Bitcoin. Recently reported US unemployment claims stood at 215,000, which was lower than projected, suggesting labour market robustness. This stability could defer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, potentially softening the bullish sentiment around Bitcoin and similar risk assets.
Amidst rising global monetary stimulus, the European Central Bank has reduced interest rates to 2.25%, the lowest since late 2022. Increased bank lending from China too adds liquidity, contributing to the global economic landscape. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has asserted the strength of the US economy, stating that the labour market remains in good shape; however, political pressures mount to adjust monetary policies due to the weakening US Dollar Index (DXY).
Recent records in gold prices hint at Bitcoin’s potential market trajectory. Analysts suggest Bitcoin historically tends to follow gold price movements with a lag of 100-150 days. With speculative targets ranging as high as $400,000 based on Bitcoin’s normalisation against gold, projections indicate that BTC could reach new heights between Q3 and Q4 of 2025.
In this current climate of global economic uncertainty, both Bitcoin and gold are viewed as pivotal indicators of financial insight. Galaxy Digital’s CEO, Mike Novogratz, notes that Bitcoin is gaining traction in a market shaped by a declining US dollar and influx of capital into alternative asset classes. Market analysts are vigilant on whether Bitcoin can decisively break the $85,000 barrier, dubbed an inflection point by anonymous analyst Titan of Crypto.
