Bitcoin Volatility Predictions: Analysts Anticipate Crash or Rally

Analysts predict significant volatility for Bitcoin (BTC), currently stabilising around $80,000, with expectations for a potential price rally. Indicators include substantial BTC movements from holder cohorts and low exchange reserves, suggesting bullish sentiment. Divergence in realised prices between short-term and long-term holders may lead to volatility. Global M2 money supply correlations also hint at a near-term trend reversal, while recent price consolidation sets the stage for a potential rally to $135,000.

Cryptocurrency analysts currently observe Bitcoin (BTC) retaining stability around the mid-$80,000 mark, but expect notable volatility in the near future. Most forecasts suggest that Bitcoin may experience a price rally, indicating potential upward trends for the cryptocurrency.

In a recent analysis by Mignolet from CryptoQuant, it was reported that approximately 170,000 BTC has shifted from the 3–6 month holder cohort. This kind of significant movement often precedes large price fluctuations, as evidenced by historical trends. A chart shared indicates that such shifts correlate with spikes in volatility, highlighted by green boxes for price increases and red for declines.

Additional insights from Master of Crypto note the disparity between the realised prices of short-term holders (STH) at approximately $92,700 and long-term holders (LTH) at $26,500. With such a wide gap, the potential for volatility increases, leading to a scenario where weaker holders might sell off, or the price might rise sharply.

Optimistically, analyst Ali Martinez points to over 15,000 BTC withdrawn from exchanges in the past week, suggesting a bullish sentiment among investors who prefer holding rather than selling. This reduced supply further enhances the scarcity narrative surrounding Bitcoin, which could increase demand.

Analyst Ted highlighted the relationship between Bitcoin and the global M2 money supply, predicting a possible trend reversal around May with a 108-day lag effect. He anticipates that Bitcoin may consolidate between $75,000 and $90,000 over the next few weeks, potentially leading to retail selling and strategic accumulation by savvy investors.

According to Titan of Crypto, BTC’s current consolidation at approximately $83,000 may set the stage for a rally toward $135,000. As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $84,553, with a marginal increase of 0.5% over the past day, keeping analysts optimistic despite the volatility predictions.