CPI MoM Turns Negative: Implications for Bitcoin’s Price

The U.S. CPI MoM has turned negative, indicating slowing inflation and potential deflation. Whale wallets holding over 1,000 BTC are increasing, showing significant accumulation from large holders. However, tightening financial conditions may limit Bitcoin’s upward momentum, and stronger catalysts are needed for future gains.

Fast Summary
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM has turned negative, indicating potential deflation and a slowing inflation rate. While Bitcoin’s price appears critical, whale wallets are increasing, suggesting significant accumulations by large holders. However, tightening financial conditions could limit Bitcoin’s price momentum, requiring stronger catalysts for growth.

CPI MoM Turns Negative
For March 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a negative CPI MoM, indicating a significant decline in monthly consumer prices. This decrease, the first since early 2020, may signal a halt in inflation or the onset of deflation. Historically, negative CPI readings have aligned with local Bitcoin price bottoms, often leading to accumulation phases and subsequent price increases, though volatility is still expected.

Whale Accumulation Continues to Grow
Data from Glassnode shows a rise in whale wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, increasing from approximately 1,940 in March 2025 to over 2,020 by mid-April 2025. The positive change in whale wallet numbers during Bitcoin’s price consolidation around $70,000 to $100,000 indicates a potential bullish confidence among long-term holders, even as retail interest remains subdued.

Technical Chart Points to Breakout Pattern
An analysis by Ao_btc_analyst compares Bitcoin price cycles with momentum indicators, revealing a potential breakout similar to historical patterns seen in 2013, 2017, and late 2020. The current chart indicates that momentum lines are approaching a crossover, hinting at an imminent breakout and the onset of a bullish cycle, though precise timing remains unpredictable.

Financial Conditions Are Tightening
The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) has risen from approximately -0.55 to -0.35 since February 2025, signifying tighter credit markets and diminished liquidity. High NFCI readings suggest increasing challenges in obtaining credit, which may negatively impact Bitcoin by constraining liquidity and investor risk tolerance. As market conditions tighten, Bitcoin may require significant institutional interest or macroeconomic easing to sustain its growth trajectory.

Disclaimer
The views expressed in this article serve informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Engaging in cryptocurrency trading poses risks of financial loss.