A flurry of bullish projections for Bitcoin’s imminent rise is linked to expectations of increased Global M2 money supply. However, analysts caution that the data behind these forecasts may be unreliable, with concerns over the discrepancies in reporting and the methods used to correlate Bitcoin and M2 figures. Various experts provide differing viewpoints on the validity of high-frequency M2 data from different countries, intensifying the debate on Bitcoin’s future direction as it trades at $84,750.
Recent bullish claims on Bitcoin’s imminent surge stem from macroeconomic influencers highlighting a potential rise in “Global M2” money supply. Raoul Pal of Real Vision urged followers to prepare for an upswing, aligning Bitcoin’s trajectory with that of Global M2, yet some market analysts are advising caution regarding the data underpinning these predictions.
The optimism emerged after Pal presented a comparison chart of Bitcoin’s performance against Global M2. Some commentators echoed the thoughts, predicting Bitcoin might experience a substantial price rise, claiming that $74.5K was the recent low. In response, concerns were raised about the reliability of such analyses, particularly regarding the use of variable timeframes and data sources.
Critic TXMC (@TXMCtrades) critiqued the rapid expansion of Global M2 data, highlighting inconsistencies in how quickly data is updated across countries. Most pertinent is that the U.S. publishes M2 figures weekly while others do so monthly. Therefore, using this data to forecast Bitcoin prices could misrepresent actual market dynamics due to daily fluctuations in foreign exchange rates.
TXMC further emphasised that China notably comprises 46% of Global M2, with its aggregation demonstrating actual growth against a backdrop of declining US M2 at present. He underscored that correlation in the presented charts may be artificially constructed and not indicative of genuine economic trends.
A counter-argument emerged from YouTuber Colin Talks Crypto, who asserted that certain central banks do provide higher-frequency updates on M2 figures. TXMC rebutted, clarifying that these updates are essentially extrapolated estimates, not true daily data. He reiterated that the perceived surge is largely a geometrical reflection of the US dollar’s depreciation and lacks practical grounding.
As of the latest update, Bitcoin traded at $84,750, highlighting the volatility and uncertainty inherent in current cryptocurrency discussions amid conflicting analyses on global monetary supply data.
