Bitcoin is nearing a historic breakout against the Nasdaq, with a ratio of 4.96. Compared to Nasdaq’s 15% decline, bitcoin has only decreased by 6% this year. MSTR remains a strong proxy for bitcoin, outperforming traditional tech stocks. Analyst James Van Straten highlights these trends as indicators of shifting market dynamics.
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching an important breakout against the Nasdaq 100 Composite, marked by a current BTC/Nasdaq ratio of 4.96. This ratio indicates that nearly five units of Nasdaq are required to equal the value of one bitcoin. The prior peak of 5.08 was recorded in January 2025, coinciding with bitcoin’s all-time high exceeding $109,000. Historical trends show that each market cycle—such as those in 2017, 2021, and now in 2025—has led to elevated ratios, further establishing bitcoin’s strength relative to tech stocks.
Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 contrasts significantly with the Nasdaq’s; bitcoin has only declined by 6% year-to-date, whereas the Nasdaq has seen a more significant drop of 15%. Following Donald Trump’s election in November 2024, bitcoin surged by 30%, while the Nasdaq experienced a 12% decline. Additionally, when analysing the leading “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks, bitcoin is about 20% below its February all-time high, signalling that major tech players are still performing relatively better than the overall Nasdaq Composite.
MicroStrategy (MSTR), a prominent vehicle for bitcoin investment, has shown resilience compared to U.S. tech stocks. Since its inclusion in the QQQ ETF on December 23, MSTR has fallen by 11%, whereas the ETF itself has declined by over 16%. In 2025, this divergence has become even clearer; MSTR is up 6% year-to-date, while QQQ suffers an overall 15% drop.
James Van Straten, a Senior Analyst at CoinDesk, has substantial expertise in bitcoin and its macroeconomic influences. His previous role as Research Analyst at Saidler & Co. honed his skills in on-chain analytics, allowing for insights into bitcoin’s integration within the financial ecosystem. Van Straten also advises on bitcoin treasury strategies for Coinsilium, a UK public firm, and holds investments in bitcoin, MicroStrategy, and Semler Scientific (SMLR).
