Bitcoin price experienced a significant uptrend, surpassing $91,000 on April 22, indicating a potential reversal from the earlier downtrend. Institutional demand is rising with $381 million in Bitcoin ETF inflows, although retail investor volume remains low. A 70% to 80% price gain is possible if Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio holds above 2. The current price rally is largely leverage-driven, necessitating alignment between futures and retail trader activities for sustained growth.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been experiencing a downward trend since January; however, the price experienced a significant surge past $91,000 on April 22, marking a potential breakout and the beginning of a new uptrend. This break above the previous resistance at $88,500 suggests increased buying volumes across various market cohorts, which could support BTC’s price stability.
Recent data revealed that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $381 million on April 21, highlighting a renewed interest not seen since January 30. These rising inflows, coupled with Bitcoin’s price increase, indicate a potential resurgence in institutional demand, which may help alleviate the selling pressure that has previously limited price growth.
Yet, retail investor demand, which includes transactions between $0 and $10,000, showed negative buy volumes, indicating that lower volume buyers remain inactive. Historically, these investors have enhanced price momentum when their buying activity turns positive, suggesting that their return could further support Bitcoin’s price movements.
Maartunn from CryptoQuant noted that the current price rally could be predominantly driven by leverage rather than actual spot volume. Supporting this, Glassnode reported a significant increase in Bitcoin futures open interest (OI), which rose by $2.4 billion within just 36 hours. For Bitcoin to solidify its position above $90,000, the discrepancy between futures and retail trader activities must be addressed.
From a long-term perspective, DYOR crypto’s founder, Hitesh Malviya, stated that Bitcoin could potentially appreciate by 70% to 80%, conditioned on maintaining a Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of 2 for the upcoming six weeks. The MVRV ratio, an important onchain metric, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realised cap, signifying the value of coins based on their last transaction price.
Historically, when the MVRV ratio exceeds 3.7, it indicates overvaluation; however, a ratio near 2 has often preceded strong price rallies, as observed when the ratio remained above 2 during Bitcoin’s peak from October 2024 to February 2025. Following a correction, the metric dipped below 2 but is currently making efforts to reclaim this significant level.
It is worth noting that this article does not provide investment advice. Each investment and trade includes inherent risks, and readers are encouraged to conduct thorough research before making decisions.
