Bitcoin surged past $91,000 amid economic recession fears and gold’s record high. Analysts question if Bitcoin can rally past $95,000, given futures indicators and trader scepticism on sustaining above $90,000. Recent political comments and shifts in treasury demands support these sentiments, while retail traders exhibit cautious optimism about Bitcoin’s future price trajectory.
Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a 45-day high exceeding $91,000 on April 22, coinciding with gold achieving a new all-time high. This price rise is attributed to investor concerns about a potential economic recession amid ongoing global trade tensions. Analysts are now questioning whether upcoming data will support a Bitcoin price rally above $95,000.
Typically, Bitcoin futures premium in neutral markets sits between 5% and 10% owing to longer settlement periods. Currently, the annualised premium is 6%, which is not especially bullish despite BTC appreciating by $6,840 within two days. Some analysts view this as evidence that Bitcoin may be decoupling from traditional stock market behaviours.
Scepticism among traders exists due to Bitcoin’s inability to maintain levels above $90,000 in early March. For instance, Bitcoin attempted to breach $95,000 on March 3, only to decline to $81,464 the next day. This lack of consistent performance since reaching a peak of $109,346 on January 20 has led to diminished conviction among bullish investors, especially as gold continues setting records.
Presently, Bitcoin trades approximately 16% below its all-time high, which closely aligns with the S&P 500’s decrease of 14.5%. This trend suggests a shift away from excessive risk-taking. Notable is Bitcoin’s 32% drawdown, which, while significant, has been less severe than the declines experienced by major tech firms like Nvidia and Amazon.
Scott Bessent, US Treasury Secretary, remarked on April 22 that the tariff standoff with China is “unsustainable,” hinting at a potential easing of tensions. Conversely, President Trump asserted via social media that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is impeding economic growth by failing to lower interest rates.
Amid these comments, there has been an uptick in demand for short-term US Treasurys, with yields on the 2-year note dropping from 4.04% to 3.81%. This indicates that investors are choosing to accept lower returns in exchange for the security of government bonds, making Bitcoin’s 6.3% price increase over the past month particularly noteworthy.
To assess changes in professional traders’ sentiment, the Bitcoin options market must be reviewed. A rise in the 25% delta skew metric above 6% suggests a bearish expectation, while a movement below -6% indicates bullish sentiment. Currently, this indicator is at -2%, signalling limited enthusiasm following Bitcoin’s recent rise, and remains in the neutral range without clear signs of institutional anticipation for extended price increases.
Despite weak macroeconomic data, investors are optimistic regarding the first-quarter earnings season, with the “Magnificent 7” companies projected to see 14.8% growth year-on-year. While Bitcoin may revisit the $95,000 threshold or higher, many traders are waiting for new developments in the US-China trade conflict before committing to new bullish positions.
