Bitcoin price has rebounded above $91,000 on April 22, potentially signalling the start of a new uptrend. Institutional demand is rising with significant inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Retail demand remains low, indicating a lag from low-volume buyers. Analysts predict Bitcoin could rise 70%-80% if the MVRV ratio is maintained at 2.
Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a continuous decline since January; however, on April 22, it surpassed $91,000, marking a significant higher high breakthrough and potentially signalling the onset of a longer-term upward trend. This breakout followed BTC’s ascension above the previous resistance level of $88,500; crucially, buying volumes across different market segments are expected to sustain this price increase.
On April 21, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net inflows reaching $381 million, a peak not witnessed since January 30. The uptick in spot BTC inflows and Bitcoin’s recent price surge suggest a potential revival in institutional interest, as the trend reversal in ETF activity could alleviate the months-long selling pressure hindering BTC prices.
Despite this positive institutional activity, retail investor demand—defined as buy volumes in the range of $0 to $10,000—remains under 0%. This indicates the absence of low-volume buyers. Historically, these investors have not capitalised on BTC price surges but tend to bolster price momentum once buying volumes become positive.
According to CryptoQuant’s community manager Maartunn, the current price rally hinges on leverage rather than spot market activity. Data from Glassnode corroborates this, revealing a sharp increase of $2.4 billion in Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) in under 36 hours. For Bitcoin to maintain its momentum above $90,000, the discrepancies between futures and retail investor behaviours must align more closely.
From a long-term perspective, Hitesh Malviya, founder of DYOR crypto, forecasted a potential price increase of 70% to 80% if Bitcoin sustains a Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio of 2 over the following six weeks. The MVRV ratio is a crucial metric that contrasts Bitcoin’s market valuation with its realised value, based on the last transaction prices of its coins. Values exceeding 3.7 typically indicate market overvaluation, while an approach towards 2 historically suggests impending price surges.
Throughout its peak from October 2024 to February 2025, Bitcoin’s MVRV score remained above 2, coinciding with its all-time high. Although recently this score dipped below 2 amid market corrections, Bitcoin is currently making efforts to reclaim this significant threshold.
