Following its 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s post-halving performance is disappointing with prices between $80,000 and $90,000, the weakest growth recorded so far. Macroeconomic uncertainty and issues around miner profitability contribute to this stagnation. Meanwhile, MiCA-compliant stablecoins show resilience, and Ethereum staking opportunities could grow in the near future as market interest shifts.
Bitcoin’s halving anniversary in 2024 marks a significant deviation from previous trends. Currently, Bitcoin trades between $80,000 and $90,000, reflecting the weakest post-halving performance recorded. Historically, Bitcoin experienced substantial growth after halvings—surging by 7,000% in 2012 and 291% and 541% in 2016 and 2020, respectively. However, the anticipated momentum nine months after halving is notably absent this time.
This lack of performance can be attributed to ongoing macroeconomic concerns, especially with trade tensions escalating in early 2025. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index averaged 317 in this post-halving cycle, significantly higher than the averages of 107, 109, and 186 observed in 2012, 2016, and 2020, respectively. Despite the turmoil, rising regulatory clarity may restore investor confidence soon.
In addition, Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased dramatically, from over 200% during the 2012 halving period to roughly 50% today. As the asset matures, the expectation is for more stable, although potentially more modest, returns compared to previous cycles. On the miner front, the hash rate reached an all-time high, signifying heightened competition. However, the lack of price increase alongside rising hash rates results in squeezed profit margins.
Miner revenue is derived from block rewards and transaction fees. After the 2024 halving, transaction fees temporarily soared due to increased block demand but have since decreased, remaining below the block reward (~3.125 BTC). The reduced block rewards highlight the necessity of consistent transaction activity for miner sustainability, especially in light of stagnant prices.
In stablecoin markets, MiCA-compliant coins have shown resilience, achieving monthly volumes of $209 billion—more than doubling since 2024. USDC leads in nominal volume, while euro-backed stablecoins have experienced a significant volume increase of 363%. However, the high transaction costs of EUR stablecoins restrict broader adoption.
Meanwhile, Ethereum staking indices might gain traction in 2025 as issuers seek to amend filings with the SEC. With greater interest in proof-of-stake assets, SOL has surfaced as a competitor, offering higher staking rewards. The recent approval of spot products for SOL in Canada indicates strong demand for such offerings.
