Analysts are questioning whether Bitcoin’s peak at $109,000 represents a market top, as indicated by the MVRV Z-Score and monthly RSI analysis. Historical patterns show significant support line breaks associated with market peaks. While bearish trends dominate, bullish attempts at recovery may also signal potential reversals, particularly if a Morning Star pattern forms.
Bitcoin recently peaked at over $109,000, prompting analysts to consider whether this surge represents the market’s top. A combination of technical indicators, particularly the Market Value to Real Value (MVRV) Z-Score, lends credence to the theory that the market cycle may have reached its peak.
Recent analysis by crypto expert Tony Severino combines the MVRV Z-Score with the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI), signalling potential market top indicators. On the logarithmic price chart, the MVRV Z-Score has dipped below a critical uptrend support line, typically respected during bullish phases, suggesting a market peak.
Historical patterns indicate that similar support line breaches occurred before previous market peaks in 2017 and 2021. The correlation between the Z-Score and Bitcoin’s monthly RSI suggests weakening momentum, as the RSI has previously fallen below 70 after price tops.
Moreover, the RSI-based Moving Average (MA) has started to decline, a signal that has historically appeared post-market peaks, suggesting confirmation of a potential top rather than mere predictions. Therefore, it appears that Bitcoin’s $109,000 mark may signify the end of the current market cycle, with signs of a forthcoming bear market now evident due to significant price corrections and waning investor confidence.
However, Severino noted bullish attempts to recover Bitcoin’s price. He indicated that if bulls can maintain momentum through to the end of April, this may shift the prevailing bearish narrative. Current charts show Bitcoin testing a crucial area of resistance and exhibiting early signs of a bullish reversal, indicated by a potential Morning Star candlestick pattern.
Similar bullish setups have emerged in 2022 and mid-2023, serving as pivotal moments for Bitcoin’s trajectory. A successful close in April forming a complete Morning Star pattern could necessitate a reassessment of the current bearish outlook, possibly indicating a reversal in fortune for Bitcoin.
