Reevaluating Bitcoin’s Market Dynamics: Insights from Analyst James Check

James Check, an on-chain analyst, proposes that the traditional four-year cycle associated with Bitcoin’s halving events is becoming less applicable. He suggests that macroeconomic factors and investor psychology now play a more significant role in Bitcoin’s market behaviour. Check highlights the critical $70K–$75K range for Bitcoin and urges investors to focus on scenario thinking rather than fixed predictions for improved long-term strategy.

For years, cryptocurrency enthusiasts have relied on a four-year cycle model linked to Bitcoin’s halving events. This cycle suggests that Bitcoin’s supply is halved every four years, sparking a surge in prices, followed by a peak, a significant downturn, and a gradual recovery. This cycle has been considered predictable and reliable by many.

However, on-chain analyst James Check posits that this model might be losing its relevance. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Check argues that the market dynamics are increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors and institutional investors, deviating from predictable patterns tied to Bitcoin’s halving.

Check suggests that rather than categorising the current market simply as “bull” or “bear”, a more complex understanding is required. He states that Bitcoin’s valuation is affected by broader economic conditions and market psychology, which muddy the traditional bull-bear dichotomy.

He emphasises, “The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles” and provides scenarios where external factors, such as changes in tariffs, could cause significant volatility. These events can lead to either surges in value or steep declines across risk assets.

Furthermore, Check identifies the $70K to $75K price range as a vital confidence area for Bitcoin, highlighting its importance in the current market landscape. He advocates for investors to adopt a mindset focused on scenarios instead of rigid predictions, which can enhance their long-term strategic approach.

For more insights, view the complete interview on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel and consider subscribing for further updates.