Bitcoin Surpasses Realised Price: Rally or Double Top?

Bitcoin has surged above the realised price of $91,000 for short-term holders, raising questions about the market’s sustainability. Factors like Trump’s tariff statements and liquidity concerns influence BTC’s trajectory. Analysts caution against potential double top formations and recommend a measured approach to investments amid fluctuating market conditions.

Bitcoin has recently crossed the realised price threshold of $91,000 for short-term holders, prompting scrutiny among analysts regarding the sustainability of this surge. This rise has sparked discussions on whether it signals an upcoming rally or if it is setting up for a potential double top ahead of a significant pullback.

Positive sentiment in the market was bolstered by US President Donald Trump’s remarks about lowering proposed tariffs on China. This news uplifted risk-on assets; consequently, Bitcoin saw a 5.6% increase within 24 hours and is now trading in the low $90,000s for the first time since March. This development has revived expectations for an extended rally that could lift BTC past the $100,000 mark, though experts advise caution.

Avocado_onchain, an analyst from CryptoQuant, highlighted insights on the behaviour of 1–3 month holders, who typically buy during bullish trends and tend to hold through corrections. The analyst illustrated with charts how these short-term holders usually transition into the 3–6 month category during prolonged drawdowns and often sell their holdings to newer buyers in strong rallies.

As markets approach the culmination of a rally, short-term holders frequently increase in numbers, often exiting at their realised price, particularly when a downturn occurs. Moreover, analysis indicates that previous Bitcoin halving cycles have seen peaks that consistently exceeded the average realised price of short-term holders, suggesting potential patterns for future movements.

The current market cycle could replicate the double top seen in early 2021, wherein Bitcoin first peaked at $109,000, surpassing short-term holders’ realised prices. Analysts recommend a cautious approach from current holders rather than disproportionately pursuing the rally, given the potential for market corrections.

Additional risks to Bitcoin’s momentum include limited liquidity in the market and broader macroeconomic factors, particularly US-China trade tensions. However, shifting market sentiment and new liquidity injections could revitalise bullish trends.

Crypto analyst Xanrox cautioned that Bitcoin’s recent breakout from a falling wedge might be a trap orchestrated by larger players to mislead retail investors prior to a downturn. As of the latest update, Bitcoin is priced at $93,754, reflecting a 5.6% increase over the past day.