Today, around $8.05 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire, hinting at potential volatility. Bitcoin has a notional value of $7.24 billion while Ethereum’s totals $808.3 million. The data indicate bullish sentiment amidst a maximum pain point for BTC at $86,000 and ETH at $1,900, each reflecting trader strategies and market expectations.
Today marks a significant day for the cryptocurrency market with roughly $8.05 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options set to expire, creating a buzz around potential price fluctuations. Traders are alert, with this volume poised to impact short-term market trends. Notably, examining put-to-call ratios and maximum pain points gives a clearer view of anticipated market directions.
Focusing on Bitcoin, there is a notional value of $7.24 billion tied to the 77,642 expiring options, exhibiting a put-to-call ratio of 0.73. This indicates there’s a higher volume of calls, meaning more traders are betting on price increases than decreases. On top of that, the maximum pain point sits at $86,000—a critical price level where traders may face the most financial losses.
Meanwhile, the Ethereum side tells a similar story. A total of 458,926 ETH options are set to expire today, worth $808.3 million. With a put-to-call ratio of 0.74 and a maximum pain point at $1,900, it suggests a bullish sentiment is prevalent among traders. Interestingly, this week’s Ethereum expiring contracts have more than doubled when compared to last week’s 177,130 contracts.
As the market stands, Bitcoin is trading well above its maximum pain line, at $93,471, while Ethereum has dipped below its $1,900 mark, currently at $1,764. Deribit analysts noted, “BTC trades above max pain, ETH below. Positioning into expiry is anything but aligned.” This misalignment may lead to both cryptos gravitating toward these maximum pain levels.
The open interest data for both BTC and ETH reflect noticeable trader activity near their max pain points. The close clustering around $80,000 to $90,000 for Bitcoin and $1,800 to $2,000 for Ethereum hints at possible price consolidation or volatility ahead.
Traders on Deribit are taking a long-term view, selling cash-secured puts to collect premiums while planning to buy BTC at lower prices, which indicates a bullish sentiment. Moreover, the highest open interest for Bitcoin options seems to hover around the $100,000 mark, underscoring market optimism for this target. Yet, Polymarket data shows that traders believe there’s only a 16% likelihood of BTC reaching that lofty milestone by April.
Additionally, the Cumulative Delta for BTC options and related ETFs on Deribit has risen to $9 billion. This level of trading activity suggests the market is sensitive to changes in Bitcoin prices and may usher in volatility as market makers adjust their hedges.
While some hedge funds seem to engage in risk-free yields via arbitrage rather than betting on Bitcoin’s appreciation, there’s also emerging interest in April to June 2025 call options. Target pricing by investors stretches between $90,000 and $110,000, inspired by Bitcoin’s recent surge past $89,000. Market sentiment appears to have been buoyed by recent policy changes from the Trump administration, reducing broader market volatility and possibly shifting investment from gold to crypto.
Yet, not all the movements contributing to Bitcoin’s rebound should be viewed as fresh capital influxes. Analyses indicate that a significant portion simply involves strategising existing positions, as traders pivot between market conditions.
