ARK Invest Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $2.4 Million by 2030

ARK Invest has revised its Bitcoin price projection for 2030 to $2.4 million, marking a more than 2,400% increase from current prices. Their report suggests a 72% compound annual growth rate, while it also updates bearish and base case scenarios to $500,000 and $1.2 million respectively. Factors driving this optimism include institutional investments and Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation, alongside its growing status as digital gold.

ARK Invest, the prominent asset manager, has significantly updated its projections for Bitcoin (BTC) prices by 2030. Now, they’re suggesting a rather bold prediction where Bitcoin could soar to a staggering $2.4 million per coin. That’s a potential increase of over 2,400% from where it stands today.

Earlier, ARK had forecasted Bitcoin would reach about $1.5 million, so this new estimate marks a considerable jump, reflecting a very optimistic outlook for the cryptocurrency. The firm anticipates that Bitcoin could achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 72% in this more bullish scenario.

In the report, ARK’s research analyst, David Puell, presented not only the bullish case but also revised figures for bear and base case scenarios. In fact, the bearish projection has been lifted from $300,000 to $500,000, while the base case jumped from $710,000 to $1.2 million. This suggests that even in less optimistic situations, there’s substantial recovery expected for Bitcoin prices.

Several factors are believed to influence Bitcoin’s potential price appreciation. Institutional investments and the role of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation alongside currency devaluation are at the forefront. What’s more, Bitcoin’s growing recognition as “digital gold” adds to its price-driving narrative.

Also noteworthy are trends regarding more countries, particularly the US, exploring Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Corporations, at least in part inspired by Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), are diversifying their treasury assets by including Bitcoin. There’s a suggestion that Bitcoin’s financial services could replace older financial systems, sparking further capital inflows.

Puell commented, “Institutional investment plays the biggest role in our bull case. However, contributions from nation-state and corporate treasuries, along with Bitcoin’s decentralized financial services, aren’t as significant in each scenario we’ve modelled.”

ARK’s evaluation hinges on detailed analyses of Total Addressable Markets (TAMs) and how many entities penetrate these markets, factoring in Bitcoin’s fixed supply schedule which is expected to cap at around 20.5 million units by 2030.

A new angle in this year’s model is the inclusion of Bitcoin’s “active supply,” which takes into account lost or long-held coins when considering future prices. This adjustment leads to targets that are roughly 40% higher than those set in previous models.

From the report, it’s clear that the methods in this new projection are aggressive compared to their bear, base, and bull cases.

ARK isn’t the only firm bullish on Bitcoin’s future. Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, believes Bitcoin’s market capitalisation could reach $500 trillion, surpassing other major stores of value like gold and real estate. If this happens, it might result in prices nearing $23.8 million per Bitcoin.

As far as other predictions go, Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin could hit $500,000 by 2028. IREN’s CEO, Daniel Roberts, thinks we could see Bitcoin at $1 million in just five years. Thomas Fahrer, co-founder of Apollo, echoes this sentiment.

In contrast, Samson Mow, the CEO of Pixelmatic, proposes that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by the end of 2025. Also, H.C. Wainwright recently revised their 2025 target from $145,000 to $225,000, while Fundstrat’s co-founder Tom Lee believes Bitcoin might smash past $150,000 by then.

Despite the growing optimism reflected in these price predictions for Bitcoin, time will tell if reality meets these lofty forecasts. Disclaimer: these are speculative predictions and should be approached with caution.