ARK Invest has dramatically raised its Bitcoin price target to $2.4 million by 2030. The updated forecast, a jump from $1.5 million, is driven by factors like institutional investment and Bitcoin’s fixed supply. Other analysts in the industry also predict significant growth, though caution remains due to Bitcoin’s volatility.
In a bold new prediction, ARK Invest, under the leadership of Cathie Wood, has substantially increased its long-term forecast for Bitcoin, now estimating its value could skyrocket to $2.4 million per coin by 2030. This remarkable estimate represents a 60% rise from the previous high of $1.5 million, signifying a staggering 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from the end of 2024 until 2030. The firm’s base scenario has also expanded, predicting a price of $1.2 million, while the bear case anticipates Bitcoin will reach at least $500,000.
The motivation behind this optimistic outlook comes from a refined model that prioritizes Bitcoin’s “active supply,” distinguishing it from dormant or lost coins. By honing in on circulating supply, ARK aims to provide a clearer perspective on actual demand and potential market dynamics.
David Puell, an analyst at ARK, pinpointed six key factors contributing to this revised forecast. Firstly, he noted the surge in institutional investments, particularly from pension and sovereign wealth funds. Secondly, Bitcoin continues to be regarded as a form of “digital gold” and a hedge against inflation. Furthermore, there’s growing adoption in emerging markets along with government reserves, corporate treasury allocations akin to what we’ve seen from companies like Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), and the rise of on-chain financial services which dethrone outdated systems. Finally, Bitcoin’s fixed supply, projected to cap at 20.5 million by 2030, adds to the bullish sentiment.
Currently, Bitcoin hovers around $94,000 after bouncing back from recent lows of $74,500. The reduction in Bitcoin held on exchanges — down from 3 million in November 2024 to just 2.6 million today — suggests an increasing number of investors are opting to hold, rather than sell. This decline in available supply on exchanges can often be seen as a bullish indicator, hinting at optimism for price growth ahead.
ARK isn’t alone in this optimistic forecast; industry bulls are setting even loftier targets. Michael Saylor is eyeing a $500 trillion market cap, equating to about $23.8 million per Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered has projected Bitcoin could hit $500,000 by 2028, and analysts Daniel Roberts and Thomas Fahrer foresee Bitcoin hitting $1 million within the next five years. Additionally, Samson Mow believes this milestone could be reached as soon as the end of 2025, while H.C. Wainwright has bumped its 2025 forecast to $225,000, and Tom Lee, somewhat more conservatively, expects Bitcoin to breach the $150,000 mark by 2025.
Despite these soaring targets, it’s important to remember Bitcoin’s enduring volatility, which is often influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions. However, an increase in adoption and a tightening liquid supply could indeed suggest a strong potential for future growth. If the trends continue, the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $1 million or beyond by 2030 seems more realistic than previously assumed – and the countdown is already underway.
