Ark Invest Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach Up to $2.4 Million by 2030

Ark Invest has released new Bitcoin price predictions for 2030, estimating a worst-case scenario of $300,000, while a bullish case could see prices soaring to $2.4 million. Institutional investments and Bitcoin’s role as ‘digital gold’ are cited as primary growth drivers. The predictions account for Bitcoin’s active supply, adjusting targets upwards by about 40%.

Ark Invest, the well-known asset management firm, has unveiled a revised set of Bitcoin price predictions for the year 2030. This update, found in their recent report within the Big Ideas 2025 series, signals a much more optimistic outlook for Bitcoin compared to previous assessments. The firm has set a worst-case scenario for Bitcoin somewhere between $300,000 and $500,000. Even in this bearish estimate, it still indicates a significant rise of 220% to 533%.

In a more optimistic scenario, Ark claims that Bitcoin could hit a staggering $2.4 million by the decade’s end, a wild jump of 2,462%. They also maintain a base case estimate of around $1.2 million per Bitcoin, translating to a jaw-dropping increase of 1,181% from the current valuation. Today, Bitcoin is trading at about $93,000, with its market cap resting at around $1.85 trillion—the equivalent of silver, which ranks as the seventh most valuable asset globally.

The driving forces behind these upbeat price predictions revolve around Bitcoin’s expanding role and its capacity to draw in major investments. Ark Invest highlighted six primary factors contributing to potential price growth. One standout aspect is heightened institutional investment, particularly by way of spot ETFs. Bitcoin is also branded as “digital gold”, lauded as both a store of value and a safe haven amidst inflation and currency instability in emerging markets.

Beyond the initial drivers, Ark pointed out secondary factors like the adoption of Bitcoin by nation-states as a treasury asset and its growing presence in corporate reserves and in on-chain financial services, which are gaining traction. In more detail, Ark anticipates that institutional investment will contribute minimally in bearish conditions (about 1%), rise to 2.5% in what they consider a neutral scenario, and could surge to 6.5% in bullish times.

The influence of Bitcoin as digital gold also sees projections fluctuating: a 20% contribution in bearish conditions, reaching 40% in neutral, and potentially soaring to 60% in bullish scenarios. Contributions from corporate treasuries and nation-state adoption are more modest, predicted to fall between 0.5% to 7%. Digital gold, while the largest contributor overall, gets a slight penalty in Ark’s model due to its competition with traditional gold, creating somewhat of a zero-sum game.

Interestingly, Ark also predicts in a bullish market that institutional adoption could outpace digital gold, contributing a significant 43.4%, while digital gold in a bear market is expected to command 57.8%. In the baseline, both factors are more evenly weighed, with digital gold at 48.6% and institutional adoption at 34.2%. Ark Invest has high hopes for Bitcoin’s on-chain financial services, estimating growth at a CAGR of 20–60% over the next five years.

Ultimately, the firm estimates Bitcoin’s minimum price around $300,000 by 2030. The average prediction stands at around $710,000, with the bullish estimate possibly reaching as high as $1.5 million. These predictions consider Bitcoin’s total supply but account for only the “active” supply, acknowledging that almost 40% has been dormant since 2018. With this in mind, Ark has adjusted its targets upwards by roughly 40%. The revised price targets are: a bear case of about $500,000, a base case of $1.2 million, and a bull case reaching $2.4 million.

It is crucial to keep in mind that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. The views reflected here may not align with those of The Crypto Basic. Readers are advised to conduct their own research before making any investment choices. The Crypto Basic bears no responsibility for any financial setbacks.