ARK Invest Projects Bitcoin Could Hit $300,000 By 2030—Analyzing the Scenarios

ARK Invest forecasts a bear case price of $300,000 for Bitcoin by 2030, factoring in moderate adoption and competition with gold. In three scenarios—bear, base, and bull—the bear scenario’s price relies heavily on Bitcoin’s capture of gold market share. The potential impact of institutional investment and emerging markets are also considered, yet many uncertainties linger around these predictions.

In a recent report, ARK Invest has projected a bear case price target of around $300,000 for Bitcoin by 2030. This figure assumes moderate institutional adoption and a gradual displacement of gold as a preferred store of value. Despite the caution, it reflects significant expectations for the cryptocurrency’s role in the financial landscape.

The report outlines multiple scenarios for Bitcoin’s future. Alongside the bear case of approximately $300,000, ARK also delineates a base case of around $710,000 and a bull case that sees Bitcoin soaring to nearly $1.5 million. The bear case notably takes a pessimistic stance, relying on conservative growth assumptions in key market areas.

Central to the bear case is Bitcoin’s potential as a form of “digital gold.” ARK estimates that Bitcoin could capture 20% of the existing $18 trillion gold market by 2030, a shift that alone could push its price to about $300,000. This conversion would contribute about 58% of the projected bear case value.

The report also points to institutional investment as a crucial factor, albeit in a conservative light. By 2030, ARK expects Bitcoin to achieve a 1% allocation of the projected $200 trillion global market portfolio, excluding gold. This would further add around 32.7% to the bear case price target.

Emerging markets are noted as having a role in Bitcoin’s future, capturing an estimated 0.5% of these economies’ $68 trillion monetary base as individuals look for financial safeguards against inflation and devaluation. This aspect likely contributes about 5.5% to the bear case price.

However, contributions from nation-state reserves and corporate treasuries are expected to remain low. ARK assumes that there will only be a 0.5% penetration of the $15 trillion global treasury reserve market and a 1% penetration of the $7 trillion corporate cash market by 2030.

Regarding Bitcoin’s on-chain financial services sector, its projected contribution to price remains limited. ARK forecasts only a 1.7% increase based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% for this sector over the next six years.

Interestingly, ARK’s bear case figures do not take into account adjustments for Bitcoin’s active supply. The report suggests that if “liveliness” metrics, which reflect active circulating supply, were factored in, the price target might rise by about 40%. However, it cautions that all projections are fraught with uncertainties, including regulatory issues and market behavior that is notoriously difficult to predict. Investors should consider these factors when interpreting ARK’s outlook.