ARK Invest has increased its Bitcoin bull case prediction to $2.4 million by 2030, driven by institutional interest and its rising status as ‘digital gold.’ The firm’s bear and base predictions have also been elevated, now standing at $500,000 and $1.2 million respectively. A $2.4 million value would place Bitcoin’s market cap at around $49.2 trillion, suggesting it might outpace gold, currently valued at $22.5 trillion.
ARK Invest, the renowned billion-dollar asset management firm, has drastically revised its Bitcoin projections, ramping up its long-term bull prediction for the cryptocurrency from $1.5 million to an ambitious $2.4 million by 2030. This notable increase is largely attributed to the surge in institutional investors and the growing perception of Bitcoin as a form of “digital gold.” In addition, ARK has also raised its bear and base scenarios to $500,000 and $1.2 million respectively, as per research analyst David Puell’s report released on April 24.
The predictions are backed by a complex analysis of Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM), anticipated penetration rates—indicating the portion of the market Bitcoin could potentially dominate—and the cryptocurrency’s supply schedule. Puell highlights that institutional investments play a critical role in reaching their optimistic price target, suggesting that Bitcoin may penetrate around 6.5% of the $200 trillion financial market in a best-case scenario, a figure that interestingly excludes gold.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s reputation as “digital gold” contributes significantly to its projected value, with Puell estimating that by the end of 2030, Bitcoin could capture as much as 60% of gold’s market cap, which was valued at $18 trillion in 2024. Another factor impacting the $2.4 million target involves Bitcoin’s emerging role as a “safe haven” for investors in developing economies, which Puell believes could generate substantial capital as it protects wealth against inflation and currency devaluation.
ARK’s outlook doesn’t stop there; strategies involving nation-state and corporate Bitcoin treasury operations, along with Bitcoin-focused financial services, have also been baked into these price forecasts. A price of $2.4 million would push Bitcoin’s market cap to a staggering $49.2 trillion, almost exceeding the combined GDP of the US and China.
The implication is clear: Bitcoin would potentially position itself to surpass gold as the largest asset globally, currently positioned at a market cap of $22.5 trillion. Even ARK’s more conservative targets of $500,000 and $1.2 million would necessitate Bitcoin achieving compounded annual growth rates of 32% and 53% respectively, figures that are rather rare for assets that have already reached trillion-dollar valuations.
Interestingly, since the bottoming out at $75,160 in 2025, Bitcoin has clawed its way back to the roughly $94,000 mark, while developments like the Trump administration’s initiative to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve continue to unfold, potentially signalling greater institutional acceptance ahead.
