ARK Invest, under Cathie Wood’s leadership, has increased its Bitcoin price forecast to potentially reach $2.4 million by 2030. The report outlines three scenarios: a bearish estimate of $300,000, a base case at $710,000, and a bullish prediction exceeding $1.5 million. Key factors include institutional investment and emerging market adoption.
Cathie Wood’s investment firm, ARK Invest, has recently upped its long-term Bitcoin price forecast, predicting the cryptocurrency could soar to as much as $2.4 million by 2030. This announcement came in a report dated April 24, where ARK presented three different possible scenarios for Bitcoin’s future pricing.
In the report, they detail a bearish scenario, estimating Bitcoin might settle at around $300,000. The base case presents a more moderate expectation with a prediction of $710,000, while the bullish outlook imagines Bitcoin rocketing past $1.5 million. The highest projection is based on Bitcoin’s on-chain financial services expanding at a rate of 60% annually, which would account for much of the price increase.
ARK Investments has crafted its forecasts by examining the potential capital inflow from six critical sources. These sources include national reserves, corporate treasuries, the perception of Bitcoin as digital gold, institutional investments, the role of emerging markets, and the growth of Bitcoin-centric financial services.
Among these factors, institutional investment stands out as the most significant. ARK suggests Bitcoin could attract about 6.5% of the global $200 trillion investment pool, ignoring gold. This particular factor alone could contribute more than 43% to the overall pricing in the optimistic scenario.
The participation of emerging markets also plays a notable role in their analysis. Given a global monetary base estimated at $68 trillion, even a modest 2.5% adoption rate would help underpin ARK’s base case prediction of $710,000. In comparison, although government and business contributions appear less impactful now, they could ramp up as more people begin to invest in Bitcoin.
On the other hand, Bitcoin’s own financial infrastructure is the smallest piece of this puzzle. Encompassing layer-2 solutions and tokenized BTC, this segment had a total addressable market of $35 billion in 2024. Its growth rates are forecasted to be quite varied, ranging from 20% in bearish situations to a striking 60% in bullish ones, which, if they play out, would greatly affect future valuations.
ARK Invest has continuously been a strong advocate for Bitcoin within the traditional financial landscape, being one of the early adopters in launching a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in partnership with 21Shares. Despite critics labeling Bitcoin as a volatile asset, ARK maintains that the bullish potential and global significance of Bitcoin warrant serious consideration for investors moving forward.
