Bitcoin’s price surged to over $94,000, driven by $2.3B in ETF inflows, but on-chain activity remains subdued. Analysts highlight reliance on ETF traders over typical holders, with concerns over whale participation. While technical indicators suggest bullish momentum, low on-chain transactions could pose risks to sustained growth.
Bitcoin has seen quite a surge recently—the price on April 25, 2025, hit $93,125.68, marking a 0.4% increase in just one day. But, as usual with crypto, this price hike begs the question: what’s driving it? Analysts suggest that the recent influx of $2.3 billion into Bitcoin ETFs and a spike in open interest (OI) are the main players in this rally. Meanwhile, on-chain activity appears to be lagging significantly behind.
Observers have noted that social sentiment in the crypto X community indicates this latest Bitcoin price jump isn’t coming from the usual on-chain transactions. Instead, it’s primarily larger investors engaging in ETF dealings and futures trading that’s pushing things upward. Crypto analyst Maartunn pointed out that the Bitcoin network isn’t seeing much action, describing it as a “ghost town.” He believes the current surge is driven largely by institutional money flooding into Bitcoin ETFs, alongside traders ramping up leveraged bets in the futures market.
In fact, Nate Geraci, President of ETF Store, highlighted that over the last four days alone, more than $2.3 billion poured into spot Bitcoin ETFs. This influx seems to have coincided directly with the rise in Bitcoin’s price, which peaked at $94,641 before taking a minor breather. However, analyst DonAlt raised a cautionary note, stating that the market isn’t yet stable enough to handle multiple narratives simultaneously. As seen when a new Trump-backed coin started gaining traction, it sucked liquidity from the overall market, leading to losses in altcoins.
Despite Bitcoin’s rally, on-chain activity—a critical indicator—has not followed suit. Data from IntoTheBlock revealed that large holder inflows (those over 1,000 BTC) have shown a marked drop, suggesting that whales simply aren’t accumulating like they did during previous bull runs. This poses the question: if the whales aren’t joining the party, who exactly is?
Charting the daily BTCUSD movements, we see the asset recently emerged from a falling wedge pattern, reaching a local high of $94,641, breaking past the resistance set by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). As of now, it has retreated slightly, showing a 0.67% dip since that peak. Volume during this breakout was significant, adding some validation to the move. However, the relative strength index (RSI) sits at 65.84, suggesting we’re close to overbought levels, while the MACD shows a promising bullish crossover with an upward trend. The indicators signal potential bullish momentum, but the weak on-chain performance might raise some eyebrows.
If Bitcoin manages to maintain its position over the $94,000 threshold, there’s a chance it could push towards previous all-time highs in the coming weeks. Conversely, if the current lack of on-chain activity persists, we might see this breakout fizzle out, leading to retracement levels testing $88,820 (the 200-day SMA) and even lower to $82,495. In a worst-case scenario, Bitcoin could plummet back to last year’s low of $74,393.
So, to sum it up: Bitcoin is certainly benefiting from ETF inflows and rising OI, but the sluggish on-chain activity raises concerns. Although technical analysis still indicates a bullish outlook, there’s a risk that this rally could soon lose momentum if whale movements and on-chain metrics don’t see some improvement in the days to come.
