Bitcoin’s price may be breaking away from historical cyclical trends, according to analysts Ki Young Ju and Darkfost. While traditionally moving in defined cycles, current macroeconomic conditions could lead to unique behaviours for Bitcoin. High interest rates and a complex political environment add layers of uncertainty, but the cryptocurrency has shown resilience, with its current price around $94,752.
Bitcoin has always been thought to follow a cyclical price pattern, with clear phases of rises, stagnation, and then drops. Yet, the cycle theory is apparently facing some challenges, as the cryptocurrency seems to be defying these conventional trends. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant and analyst, initially suggested that the current bull cycle for Bitcoin would end by March 2025. Yet, he’s revisited his views, suggesting a potential breakout from established patterns.
On social media platform X, a pseudonymous analyst known as Darkfost shared insights hinting that Bitcoin’s current market cycle could break away from historic norms, although perhaps not as sharply as many investors might anticipate. Darkfost’s analysis hinges on an essential chart that aligns macroeconomic indicators with Bitcoin’s price trajectory. They noted that the cryptocurrency has been operating under market conditions that are notably unfriendly to riskier assets, unlike any previous cycle.
Darkfost pointed out the impact of high interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, which typically would push investors toward safer returns from instruments such as Treasury bonds. They posed a thought-provoking question: why would institutional investors gamble on Bitcoin when they could secure around a 5% yield with minimal risk? It’s worth mentioning that the short-term US 2-Year Treasury yield is currently surpassing long-term yields.
This analyst believes that although liquidity hasn’t fully flowed into riskier assets, Bitcoin has delivered solid performance over the past year, defying those cautious trends. Darkfost also noted that uncertainty surrounding the potential reelection of former President Donald Trump adds another layer of complexity. They concluded that while Bitcoin appears to be behaving on typical trajectories for now, there could be a shift toward an unprecedented cycle if macroeconomic factors stabilise later this year and continue through 2026.
As for Bitcoin’s current value, it stands at about $94,752, experiencing a minor dip of roughly 0.5% in the last day. A chart from TradingView indicates this decline, yet the overall trend has remained rather impressive despite the prevailing market hurdles.
In summary, Bitcoin’s relationship with the cyclical price theory is under close scrutiny as analysts like Ju and Darkfost present diverging views, creating tension between traditional expectations and current realities. Stay tuned, these insights may signal pivotal shifts in the cryptocurrency landscape.
