Bitcoin is trading at a large 40% discount, with significant withdrawals from exchanges and a current spike in ETF interest. Analyst forecasts suggest Bitcoin could rise past $100,000 this April, but potential resistance levels may complicate predictions.
Recent analyses indicate that Bitcoin is presently trading at a striking 40% discount to its intrinsic value. This assessment comes from Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, who took to X to share insights on the market’s current state. Following the halving in April 2024, which sliced block rewards to 3.125 BTC, Bitcoin’s projected energy value now stands at approximately $130,000, suggesting potential upside.
In data reported by CryptoQuant, a hefty sum of over 8,756 BTC, worth around $830 million, was pulled from Coinbase alone on April 24. Such net outflows from this platform often point to strong institutional interest or correlate with ETF activity, revealing a shift towards higher demand.
This surge aligns with significant inflows related to spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analyst Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg noted a remarkable $3 billion influx from institutions recently, characterising it as a spending spree for Bitcoin. Additionally, on April 25, Binance recorded an outflow of 27,750 BTC, the third largest in its history, according to Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal.
Wedson remarked that while these substantial withdrawals paired with positive price trajectories provide bullish signals, they don’t guarantee sustained upward momentum. He drew parallels to 2021, highlighting that significant outflows prior to the market tumble initiated by China’s crypto ban didn’t prevent the ensuing price drop. Yet, consistent outflows over a period, such as those witnessed during the FTX collapse, often marked a potential recovery point.
Turning to Bitcoin’s performance, this week the cryptocurrency achieved its best gains in 2025, reflecting trends similar to those seen in November 2024. A daily chart analysis reveals that Bitcoin is currently consolidating at a higher trading range. Over the specified period, BTC has observed an 11% increase. If this momentum continues, forecasters speculate that Bitcoin could ascend above the $100,000 mark in the coming days, motivated by a similar historical pattern.
Nonetheless, it’s crucial to note that while fractal patterns can identify potential trends, they aren’t foolproof. The current resistance level is set quite critically at $96,100, which could pose a challenge to any imminent breakout, unlike previous periods without such barriers.
