This week, Bitcoin is facing critical US macroeconomic data that may drive volatility, recently retesting $92,000. Analysts differ on price predictions, with some anticipating deeper corrections and others forecasting possible highs. While short-term holders are currently profiting, heightened market sentiment raises concerns of a potential local top in price. Interest rates and inflation also remain crucial factors affecting Bitcoin’s performance.
Bitcoin (BTC) is anticipating a turbulent week ahead as it prepares for significant macroeconomic data from the US. With eyes on a potential volatility spike, analysts are keeping an eye on the recent retest of $92,000 amidst predictions of a deeper price correction. The Federal Reserve is under pressure, navigating issues on multiple fronts, which may further influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming days.
Currently, Bitcoin has settled just above $92,000, having enjoyed a bullish weekly close that came in at around $93,500, a critical yearly opening level. Some traders, like CrypNuevo, believe there could be higher highs for BTC/USD, possibly peaking around $97,000. Others, however, are less optimistic. Trader Roman thinks a more substantial retracement is on the horizon, especially considering indicators pointing toward an overbought market.
This week is action-packed for US economic indicators, with key data that includes quarterly GDP figures, nonfarm payrolls, and tech earnings, all set to hit the markets. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is expected to be closely monitored as it approaches release on April 30th. The volatility from these indicators could shake up crypto and other risk assets significantly.
Moreover, interest rates and inflation are hot topics. Analysts predict that the Fed might freeze interest rates this May, even as the market expects cuts as early as June. This stems from a robust labour market, despite rising trade tariffs that are causing uncertainty in various sectors. The chances of an interest rate cut have been bolstered, according to some reports which highlight shifting market sentiments.
On a longer-term note, hedge fund founder Dan Tapiero has set an ambitious target for Bitcoin, suggesting it could reach $180,000 by summer 2026. He cites deteriorating manufacturing expectations and correlates them with a potential influx of market liquidity. This reflects the ongoing debate on whether Bitcoin will thrive under increasing liquidity conditions.
In terms of trader sentiment, Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) are in a particularly interesting position right now. Recent data shows that their cost basis is hovering around the pivotal $92,000 mark. This indicates that for Bitcoin to sustain its upward momentum, it needs to maintain levels above that cost basis in order to establish a firm bull market trend, especially since support was breached in March.
Complicating matters is the looming fear of a “local top” in the Bitcoin market, as indicated by a spike in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which hit levels suggesting extreme greed not witnessed since the previous bull run. The index is now back to neutral, yet Santiment warns that if greed continues to dominate, it could lead to a local price peak. The sentiment surrounding Bitcoin could also influence investor behaviour, with potential consequences for the future price trajectory.
