Bitcoin has managed a crucial technical gain by closing above its bull market support band. Analysts, including Benjamin Cowen, are watching closely how the 20-week SMA and the 21-week EMA perform over the next two weeks. Retail interest is low, despite Bitcoin gains, and a potential path to $100K hinges on sustaining current momentum.
Bitcoin has recently achieved a crucial technical milestone, closing above what analysts call the bull market support band. This is a significant step but has left many asking if this breakout is genuine or just another false alarm. According to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, the next two weeks will be vital in determining Bitcoin’s direction.
Cowen has highlighted two key indicators that all investors should focus on: the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA). Collectively, these averages form the bull market support band, a traditional marker that helps signal shifts in Bitcoin’s long-term momentum. Historically, Bitcoin has struggled to maintain this critical level, as seen in its brief rises in July and August 2024 before losing momentum and slipping back into bearish territory, creating uncertainty in the market.
During a recent analysis, Cowen stated that if Bitcoin can sustain its performance for the next two weeks, particularly by closing above the 20-week SMA, bullish sentiment may return. However, a close below the 21-week EMA indicates potential for a new low, raising concerns about the upcoming trend.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s current strong performance is occurring amid what Cowen describes as unusually low retail investor engagement. His proprietary “social risk” metric tracks retail interest through various indicators, including growth in YouTube subscribers and views, as well as follower counts on social media platforms.
Cowen noted that despite recent gains, retail interest hasn’t mirrored the enthusiasm once seen in 2021, drawing comparisons to the subdued atmosphere of 2019 marked by tough monetary policies. In this context, Bitcoin dominance—illustrating the proportion of the total cryptocurrency market that Bitcoin comprises—has increased for eight straight weeks, reflecting the struggles of altcoins without robust retail-driven momentum.
Some key Bitcoin metrics to monitor moving forward include: two consecutive weekly closes above the 20-week SMA as a bullish signal, while a close below the 21-week EMA could indicate bearish trends and the potential for new lows. Additionally, ongoing high Bitcoin dominance suggests caution among retail investors, leading to weaknesses in altcoins and a lack of public enthusiasm.
Looking ahead, maintaining this momentum could pave the way for Bitcoin to reach the much-anticipated milestone of $100,000. However, sustaining such momentum will be the key, leaving many wondering if this recent strength is merely temporary. If Bitcoin struggles in the coming weeks, it could push back the prospect of achieving that six-figure goal. Conversely, if it holds steady, experts believe this may spark the next significant upward phase, especially with forecasts of easing monetary policy later in 2025.
