Fidelity Digital Assets believes Bitcoin is undervalued, as labour market indicators point towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The JOLTS report reveals diminishing job openings, prompting optimism for Bitcoin’s value. Additionally, inflows into BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF signal growing investor interest, even amid broader market challenges. Analysts share both caution and positivity in their outlook regarding Bitcoin amidst an evolving economic landscape.
As the cryptocurrency landscape continues to evolve, Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be in a bit of a buying zone, according to recent insights from Fidelity Digital Assets. They suggest that Bitcoin is currently undervalued and have a positive view for its mid-term outlook, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment. This comes alongside a notable decrease in job openings in the United States, as indicated by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report, which is raising hopes for federal interest rate cuts, potentially paving the way for a stronger Bitcoin market.
Fidelity’s analysis highlights the ‘Bitcoin Yardstick’ metric—a measure that juxtaposes Bitcoin’s market capitalisation against its hashrate. A lower figure indicates a cheaper Bitcoin in relation to the network’s energy security. The metric’s fluctuations showed it remaining between -1 and 3 standard deviations in the first quarter of 2025, a relief from levels in late 2024. Significantly, the number of days above these thresholds has decreased, suggesting that Bitcoin is priced more favourably compared to its support network.
Furthermore, Fidelity noted that Bitcoin is currently in an “acceleration phase.” Rallies toward new highs typically happen during such phases, though there’s also caution about a potential market peak. In terms of holdings, the percentage of illiquid supply grew from 61.50% to 63.49% while liquid supply went down by 4%. This indicates that more investors are opting for long-term retention rather than immediate trading, with the Illiquid Supply Shock Ratio now sitting 16% under its 2017 peak.
Adding to the positive sentiment, a notable development in the ETF space was reported by Cointelegraph. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw an impressive inflow of $970.9 million on April 28, 2025. This marked its second-largest daily inflow since its start in January 2024, contributing to over $4.5 billion in total inflows within a short span, despite various competitors experiencing outflows. Presently, IBIT commands a dominating 51% share of the US spot Bitcoin ETF market, with a robust portfolio valued over $54 billion.
More context comes from the latest JOLTS report, revealing a decline in job openings to 7.19 million, down from 7.57 million in February. The result missed market expectations and hints at a slowing job market—something that falters the dollar and could push investors toward riskier assets, including Bitcoin. Should employment figures have been better than anticipated, it could have indicated economic strength, possibly resulting in postponed rate cuts that would pressure the crypto market.
Economist and Bitcoin analyst Alex Kruger flagged the JOLTS data as a positive signal for Bitcoin, expecting it to benefit from a possible easing of trade tariffs post-July 8. He noted shifts in market focus towards earnings updates from major firms and hinted at the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where potential early rate cuts could be discussed. Kruger also anticipates a potential economic slowdown in Q3, which might rattle markets, but believes Bitcoin’s risk-reward positioning is favourable compared to overbought altcoins.
It’s crucial to remember, though, that this overview does not serve as investment advice. As always, individuals should proceed with caution and conduct thorough research when deciding to invest in cryptocurrency or any market.
