Analysts are challenging the adage “Sell in May and go away,” arguing that May 2025 could see Bitcoin prices rise. Key reasons include a strong correlation with the global M2 money supply, historical performance data showing consistent gains in May, rising inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and a notable decoupling from traditional stock markets. However, investors should remain alert to potential economic signals that could introduce volatility.
The well-worn adage “Sell in May and go away” has always been a staple among investors, especially those wary of summer market volatility. However, some analysts believe this might not apply to Bitcoin come May 2025. Current market analyses suggest that conditions may actually favour price increases instead of declines for the cryptocurrency during that time.
Four key reasons underpin why selling in May might be a big mistake in 2025. The first, as pointed out by various analysts, is the close tie between Bitcoin and the global M2 money supply. M2 reflects the total money in circulation, including cash, savings accounts, and other liquid assets. Historically, Bitcoin prices have surged when central banks boost the money supply, with many expecting this trend to hold in 2025.
Kaduna, a notable analyst, even presented charts indicating May might be a breakout month for Bitcoin. While there are differing opinions in the analyst community, the sentiment among investors is skewing positively, suggesting that May could surprise many.
Another point of interest is the historical performance of Bitcoin in May. Data from Coinglass shows that for the last twelve years, Bitcoin has averaged returns of over 7.9% during this month. While the broader markets might experience turbulence in the summer, Bitcoin has typically shown resilience. It’s even outperformed both June and September in several instances. One user on X pointed out that nine of the May months since 2010 have been profitable for Bitcoin.
The adage originally stems from stock market trends, where it has proven more applicable to equities rather than cryptocurrencies. This leads us to another significant factor: the rising inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. Reports indicate that on Monday alone, Bitcoin ETFs had drawn in new investor interest, with net inflows amounting to a remarkable $591.29 million, marking a seventh consecutive day of gains.
Leading the charge was BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which captured $970.93 million in just one day, rallying its total net inflows to a staggering $42.17 billion. Such inflows signal a reassuring level of investor confidence and long-term optimism for Bitcoin as we approach May 2025.
Lastly, there’s the palpable decoupling of Bitcoin from traditional indices like the S&P 500. An investor known as arndxt highlighted this disconnect, with reports from BeInCrypto showing a similar trend when comparing Bitcoin to the NASDAQ. Analysts interpreting this divergence view Bitcoin increasingly as an independent asset, rather than one still tethered to traditional market dynamics.
The commentary from arndxt encapsulates this idea well: “The old ‘Sell in May and go away’ mantra doesn’t apply the same way for crypto. Liquidity pressures are easing, and May could mark the beginning of an acceleration, not a pause.” In short, the correlation with M2 money supply, positive May returns historically, large ETF inflows, and the decoupling from classic stock indices suggest that offloading Bitcoin during this time may not be the best idea in 2025.
That said, it’s critical for investors to remain cautious. Factors like the Federal Reserve’s data, including CPI rates and interest rates, and ongoing trade tensions could inject some level of uncertainty into May’s forecast.
