Bloomberg analysts forecast a 75%-90% chance of approval for several crypto ETFs despite impending SEC delays. Litecoin, Solana, and crypto baskets lead with a 90% approval probability, while Ripple sits at 85%. Dogecoin and Hedera follow at 80%, with Avalanche, Cardano, and Polkadot at 75%. However, SEC decisions are postponed into 2025 for many applications, creating uncertainty in the market.
Analysts from Bloomberg have crunched the numbers, forecasting a solid 75% to 90% likelihood that various crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will be approved. But there’s a catch—delays by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might push those decisions back until 2025. That’s a wait, for sure.
Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart from Bloomberg recently shared their insights, diving deep into the approval odds for ETFs currently in limbo. Among the most favoured are spot ETFs for Litecoin (LTC), Solana (SOL), and crypto baskets like Grayscale’s GBTC, which boast a strong 90% chance of getting the green light in 2025. This optimism is in part due to the SEC treating LTC and SOL like commodities, noting their connections to regulated futures markets. All of these applications have had their 19b-4 forms acknowledged, with final decisions expected between July and October of this year.
Ripple (XRP) sits a tad lower on the approval scale at an 85% chance. The approval odds for XRP hinge on regulatory categorization, notably since the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) classified XRP as a regulated asset for futures in April. Meanwhile, Dogecoin (DOGE) and Hedera (HBAR) follow closely with an 80% probability of approval. Avalanche (AVAX), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT) are trailing only slightly behind with a 75% likelihood of getting the thumbs up.
In a curious note, Balchunas expressed a desire to hear from the SEC’s Dalia Atkins regarding these approvals, but generally stated that all these funds have a solid shot of being approved. However, optimism isn’t enough to shake off the reality of the SEC’s ongoing delays in the crypto ETF sphere. On April 29, for instance, the SEC pushed back decisions on several key applications. Franklin Templeton’s spot Solana ETF now waits until Oct. 7 for a decision, while the spot XRP ETF is now set for Nov. 5.
Additionally, the SEC delayed decisions on Grayscale’s spot Hedera ETF and Bitwise’s Dogecoin ETF, with their final rulings also pushed to Oct. 8. Oh, and let’s not forget Fidelity’s spot Ethereum ETF; the SEC deferred a decision related to its staking provisions, although, as of now, there’s no new deadline in sight. Not to mention, decisions on Bitwise’s Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs along with Canary Capital’s Hedera ETF were also delayed, shifting deadlines to either June 10 or June 11.
