Analysts predict a 75-90% chance of spot crypto ETF approvals in 2025, led by Litecoin and Solana, with significant backing from major firms like Grayscale. The SEC’s potential classification of these assets as commodities and the existence of CFTC-regulated futures boost approval odds. The process milestones and issuer credibility further enhance these predictions, despite regulatory uncertainties lingering in the background.
Analysts are buzzing with optimism regarding the potential for spot crypto ETF approvals, estimating a solid 75-90% chance for 2025. Leading the charge are index funds alongside popular cryptocurrencies like Litecoin and Solana. The upgrades in approval odds come as experts predict the SEC might classify the underlying assets more as commodities, combined with the presence of CFTC-regulated futures contracts which can strengthen their position.
In this context, major players in the ETF space, such as Grayscale and Bitwise, alongside recent advancements in their respective applications, add a great deal of weight to these predictions. Notably, ETFs associated with firms like Grayscale are among those branded with a striking 90% approval probability. They include assets which are likely to bring the much-coveted regulatory nod from the SEC, at least that’s the hope.
The clock is ticking toward key dates, with the initial 19b-4 filing having been submitted on October 15, 2024, and a crucial deadline set for the SEC decision by July 2, 2025. Analysts are saying that the acknowledgment of this 19b-4 filing signals a significant shift; it likely means the SEC views the underlying assets as commodities, circumventing some regulatory hurdles along the way.
On the specific front, Litecoin has a contingent of strong applicants including Canary and Coinshares pushing for spot Litecoin ETFs. The SEC acknowledged a first 19b-4 filing for these ETFs on January 16, 2025, with a final deadline looming on October 2, 2025. This positions Litecoin favorably within the commodity bracket, with its futures contracts being governed by CFTC regulations.
Equally, Solana hasn’t lagged behind in this race. It too has secured a hefty 90% probability for ETF approval, with issuers such as Grayscale, 21Shares, and VanEck throwing their hats in the ring. The first filing for Solana took place on January 24, 2025, and its deadline for SEC ruling is set for October 10, 2025. As with Litecoin, Solana appears to have stepped into the commodity classification realm, aiding its cause for approval.
Other cryptocurrencies are also in the mix, with XRP receiving an 85% chance, followed by Dogecoin at 80% and HBAR also at 80%. Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche aren’t far behind with a steady 75% likelihood each. The SEC’s perception of assets as commodities plays a significant role in these predictions, suggesting that the clearer the classification, the higher the likelihood of approval.
Moving further, the entire ETF application process stages matter a lot, starting from the initial filing date to the deadlines set by the SEC. The standing of these applications is enhanced when backed by industry giants such as Grayscale and VanEck. However, one must keep in mind that these predictions hinge on the ever-changing landscape of market regulations. Nonetheless, for 2025, the anticipation surrounding potential spot crypto ETF approvals is indeed peaking, with Litecoin and Solana taking up a starring role.
