Bitcoin has shown resilience above $94,000, with predictions for a rally potentially reaching $140,000 amid weak U.S. labour data and strong institutional inflows. Historical patterns suggest significant price increases could occur if certain macroeconomic indicators align positively by mid-2025. Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin could hit $120,000 soon and $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing strong accumulation and market dynamics.
Bitcoin is holding steady above the $94,000 mark, and analysts are buzzing about its potential to hit new all-time highs. The recent weakening of U.S. macroeconomic data, alongside surging institutional interest, could create ideal conditions for a price rally in the coming months. Inflows into institutional products, like BlackRock’s exchange-traded fund (ETF), are only adding fuel to the fire as traders eye the future.
The latest U.S. Labor Department report indicates a troubling drop in job openings, now at 7.2 million, a figure that many analysts weren’t expecting. This drop significantly approaches the lowest levels seen in four years and has come with a fall in consumer confidence—a variable that’s often been linked to major fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price. So, there’s a lot of chatter that these factors might signal a bullish trend for BTC.
According to Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, “hot supply”—essentially, Bitcoin being exchanged—has nearly doubled in just five weeks, now surpassing $40 billion. This increase generally points to a rising level of speculative capital joining the market. Remarkably, measures like the Percent Supply in Profit (currently at 86%) are climbing too, suggesting that the market may be gearing up for action. Still, daily active wallet addresses remain low, hinting that excitement is still building.
On April 28, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust experienced a hefty inflow of $970.9 million, making it the second-highest since its January debut. The fund boasts a 51% share of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market and has a total of approximately $54 billion in managed assets. This trend is a stark contrast to other market players who have seen withdrawals, underscoring the ETF’s significant role in recent trading patterns.
Interestingly, Fidelity Digital Assets has calculated something called the Bitcoin Yardstick metric, which indicates that BTC may currently be undervalued. This metric evaluates Bitcoin’s market cap against its hashrate, and the figures suggest that this cryptocurrency is cheaper compared to its network security than before.
Historically speaking, analysts note that Bitcoin often rallies significantly when specific factors align: low leverage, stronger retail sales, and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. Looking back, we saw Bitcoin rise from $40,000 to $73,500 in a similar timeline recently, which isn’t the first time this year these patterns have emerged.
Standard Chartered has set ambitious targets with forecasts pointing to Bitcoin reaching around $120,000 in the second quarter and possibly hitting the $200,000 mark by the end of 2025. Geoff Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered, emphasised the potential ramifications of a climbing U.S. Treasury term premium landing at a twelve-year high. Additionally, heightened accumulation from major investors suggests a growing sentiment around BTC being a better hedge—perhaps even more so than gold—against financial system risks.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s trajectory hinges heavily on upcoming decisions from the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to clarify the central bank’s course of action on June 18, which many believe could impact Bitcoin’s immediate pricing. Plus, noteworthy events later this summer—like the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium—are sure to keep traders on their toes as well.
If Bitcoin manages to maintain support above the $94,500 mark, this could pave the way for the next surge towards potential all-time highs. The combination of current economic indicators, increasing institutional involvement, and historical trends seems to paint a promising picture for BTC’s future.
