The approval odds for an XRP spot ETF have soared to 85%, following the appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC chair. Analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart express optimism about the ETF’s approval timeline. Recent trading developments and discussions around institutional adoption signify a potential $100 billion influx into XRP if a spot ETF is approved, appealing to crypto traders and investors alike.
XRP Spot ETF Approval Odds Rise to 85% for 2025
In the world of cryptocurrency, the enthusiasm is palpable as reports suggest an 85% chance for the approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) by 2025. This development comes amid optimism surrounding Paul Atkins, who has recently taken over as chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Many in the crypto community are hopeful his leadership will steer the regulatory environment in a more favorable direction for digital assets.
The sentiment in the market has shifted considerably, particularly following Atkins’s appointment, which follows a period characterised by stringent regulations under his predecessor, Gary Gensler. With lawsuits against various crypto companies seeing some positive outcomes, there is a renewed sense of what might come next. There’s talk of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, hinting that the US might be positioning itself as a leading force in Bitcoin adoption across the globe.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has made a call to Atkins, seeking clarity on the timeline for the SEC’s approval of an XRP ETF, which is crucial for both institutional adoption and retail investor confidence. Alongside his colleague James Seyffart, Balchunas feels positive about the prospects of these altcoin ETFs gaining approval soon. “We’d love to get some news directly from Atkins,” he remarked, suggesting that the XRP ETF’s approval is not far off.
By their estimates, the XRP ETF has an 85% likelihood of receiving the necessary regulatory nod, which positions it as a top candidate for approval in 2025. Balchunas has shared probability figures for multiple spot crypto ETFs—indicating that XRP is indeed at the forefront.
However, Seyffart has cautioned against expecting immediate approvals, suggesting crypto stakeholders keep their hopes in check, especially as most key decisions may not come until after October 2025. He said, “The final deadlines for approving these ETFs are generally extended to October 2025 or beyond.”
That said, the confirmation of Paul Atkins is seen as a turning point. Balchunas pointed out that, until Atkins was in place, any moves towards approvals were stagnant. “Now that he’s confirmed, there’s active engagement and strategising happening. We’re likely to see approvals coming soon,” he noted, bolstering investor expectations for altcoin ETFs beyond Ethereum.
There’s undoubtedly excitement around these potential ETFs, as they could enhance crypto’s legitimacy and attract institutional liquidity. In fact, a recent article pointed to a growing trend where Bitcoin seems to be outpacing gold, especially with significant capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs at a time when gold exchange-traded products lagged.
Speaking of ETFs, there was some confusion recently regarding an alleged XRP ETF approval, which turned out to be untrue. Only short and leveraged XRP futures ETFs were allowed to commence trading from April 30. Nonetheless, ProShares’ XRP futures ETF has fuelled hope in the market, with analysts suggesting the next step could see a spot XRP ETF that could draw as much as $100 billion.
Industry expert Armando Pantoja weighed in, stating that if a spot XRP ETF does get approved, the token could experience a significant uptick, possibly rallying by almost 50%, hitting levels around $3.40. There’s speculation too that XRP could eclipse Ethereum in terms of market cap.
In related sentiments, chart indicators suggested a 45% likelihood for SEC approval of XRP ETFs by July 31, while a broader view suggested an 80% chance of approval by the end of the year or in 2025.
On other crypto developments, Trump Media & Technology Group is set on exploring a utility token for its platform. Plus, Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract increasing institutional investment as its supply on exchanges reaches a seven-year low. Cardano whales are accumulating, while Ethereum faces a community debate over its future focus.
As the crypto landscape evolves, these various threads reveal the uncertainty, excitement, and potential ahead for XRP and the broader market.
Stay tuned for more updates on these fast-moving developments in the crypto sector.
