The Macro Chain Index (MCI) signals a potential Bitcoin bull run after its first buy alert since 2022, suggesting BTC could surpass $100,000. The RSI crossover aligns with historical trends, indicating bullish momentum. Bitcoin shows renewed market strength with rising open interest in futures and positive funding rates, despite a recent dip from record highs.
A promising indicator for Bitcoin enthusiasts has emerged yet again. The Macro Chain Index (MCI) is signalling potential bullish momentum after issuing its first buy alert since the 2022 market low. Observers are pointing to this as a sign that a new bullish phase for Bitcoin may be on the horizon.
The MCI is a complex measure, combining a range of long-term on-chain and macroeconomic factors. It assesses elements like accumulation activity, network behaviour, and supply trends, all to determine Bitcoin’s valuation relative to historical market cycles. Most noteworthy right now is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) within the MCI.
In April, this RSI crossed above its 52-week moving average — a move that’s historically been a precursor to Bitcoin bull runs. This crossover has occurred before, notably in 2015 ahead of Bitcoin’s climb to $20,000, and again in 2019 before it soared to $65,000. Interestingly, the same signal emerged late last year, just as BTC marked its lowest point close to $15,500.
Should historical trends repeat, this April indicator suggests we might be at the threshold of a new bull market, especially with other indicators hinting Bitcoin could break the vital $100,000 mark soon. Alpha Extract, the brains behind the MCI, highlights the significance of this signal, noting it’s the first since hitting what they identified as the absolute bottom.
They pointed out that both market fundamentals and structure appear to be aligning well, making this a noteworthy call for those tracking Bitcoin’s future movements. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price fluctuated after hitting an all-time high of nearly $110,000 in January, plunging as much as 32%. This drop was largely tied to the global trade war initiated by the former US President Donald Trump.
After hitting a local low below $74,450 in early April, Bitcoin has made a noticeable recovery, getting back to around $95,650 lately. It’s worth mentioning that this rebound seems to be at odds with a generally bearish US stock market, suggesting Bitcoin’s doing something different here.
An increase of $2.2 billion in Bitcoin’s open interest signals strong backing from futures markets, particularly on Binance. In the early months of 2023, open interest dramatically fell from $11.9 billion down to $7.5 billion, reflecting a 36.9% drop. This decline indicated diminishing confidence during Bitcoin’s decline; however, the story changed in mid-April.
In just three weeks, a surge of 29.3% in open interest saw it rise back to $9.7 billion, coinciding perfectly with Bitcoin’s upward price adjustment in the spot markets. Such a spike usually indicates that new long positions are opening up rather than merely closing out short ones, implying that traders are becoming more optimistic.
Moreover, positive funding rates indicate that long-position holders are compensating short sellers, hinting that market sentiment remains on the upswing. The combination of increased open interest and consistent positive funding rates could mean Bitcoin is poised for a further climb towards that $100,000 landmark in the near future. No investment advice is included; all trading carries risks, and thorough research is encouraged before close engagement.
