Approximately $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today, creating potential for price volatility. Bitcoin contracts worth around $2.6 billion and Ethereum contracts valued at $340.7 million set the stage for significant market movement. While Bitcoin shows a slightly bearish sentiment, Ethereum remains bullish, leading analysts to have an optimistic view of the market’s future direction. Traders should be watchful of volatility until contracts settle around 8:00 UTC.
Today, almost $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, raising the stakes for traders as they anticipate price volatility. This sizeable expiry is a notable event in the crypto world, one that could cause fluctuations throughout the market. Traders are advised to keep a close eye on the developments, particularly around 8:00 UTC when the contracts will officially expire.
Data gathered from Deribit indicates that there are 26,949 Bitcoin contracts expiring, valued at approximately $2.6 billion. Interestingly, the maximum pain point—the level where the highest number of investors face losses—sits at $91,000, meaning many contracts could become worthless at this price. The current put-to-call ratio for Bitcoin is 1.01, signalling a slightly bearish sentiment as there are more sales than purchases being made.
On the flip side, Ethereum presents a different scenario. Its put-to-call ratio stands at 0.92, which suggests overall bullish sentiment among investors. With 184,296 Ethereum contracts expiring today and a total notational value around $340.7 million, the maximum pain point for Ethereum is pegged at $1,800. Ethereum has recently seen a modest price increase, clocking in at around $1,848, a rise of about 2.27% since the last trading session opened.
Despite the variety in sentiment across Bitcoin and Ethereum, analysts at Greeks.live assert an overarching bullish outlook for the market. Traders generally seem optimistic, with speculation mounting that Bitcoin could push toward the $100,000 target, driven by low volatility and a solid market structure. “Key levels being watched include the $96,000 NPOC and the $94,400 rolling VWAP,” noted Greeks.live, although they cautioned about the traditional selling phase during May.
Traders are now spotting opportunities in long positions due to low volatility. Greeks.live explains that market makers are selling calls at 30% implied volatility to capitalise on gamma. This approach allows them to profit from stable prices while managing minor price shifts in a low-volatility environment.
In terms of strategy, some traders are turning bearish on Ethereum due to its underperformance relative to Bitcoin. Conversely, others are excited about Bitcoin’s steady climb and are looking at volatility in July for potential vega gains. This shows there’s a mix of strategies emerging within the trading community, reflecting diverse perspectives in the market.
Analysts at Deribit echo the sentiment of Bitcoin’s consistent rise, stating that there’s substantial call stacking above $95,000. Presently, Bitcoin is trading around $97,108, showing near 3% gains in the past 24 hours. This thick stacking of call options signifies a healthy level of optimism for an upward price movement.
However, it’s crucial to understand that options expirations can indeed stir up volatility, as observed during last week’s $8.05 billion expiry that led to some price consolidation. While activity typically normalises post-expiry, after about 8:00 UTC, the lead-up to that time can often create a turbulent trading atmosphere.
