Bitcoin has surged past the $96,000 mark, hinting at a potential bullish shift in the market. Notable analyst Axel Adler suggests on-chain momentum indicators show promise, indicating a rally could be developing. Scenarios for Bitcoin’s price movement range from a continued upward trajectory towards $100,000 and beyond, to a possible consolidation phase or even a pullback, contingent on market strength and macroeconomic conditions.
Bitcoin has broken above the significant $96,000 mark, which many analysts see as a major turning point after several weeks of consolidation. Amidst this rise, there’s a growing sense that Bitcoin could soon reach the coveted $100,000 milestone within a relatively short timeframe. The breakout clearly signals potential new bullish momentum in the market, suggesting a shift in sentiment among traders and investors alike.
Axel Adler, a noted crypto analyst, points out an important on-chain metric indicating that Bitcoin might be entering a new rally phase. The momentum ratio currently sits at around 0.8, or 80%. This mark has historically represented a launchpad for upward trends in Bitcoin’s price during previous cycles. While the broader macroeconomic climate is uncertain due to various geopolitical tensions, the strength in Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics indicates a growing willingness to take risks among investors.
Should the bulls maintain control after the breakout and rally towards $100,000, this would signal a notable market shift, paving the way for what could be a strong Q2 for the entire crypto sector. Adler stresses that if the momentum ratio manages to break and maintain a position above 1.0, it could confirm robust bullish trends ahead. In that more promising scenario, Bitcoin could realistically see prices reaching between $150,000 and $175,000 based on previous market patterns from 2017 and 2021.
On the flip side, if the momentum ratio fluctuates between 0.8 and 1.0, we might see Bitcoin entering a consolidation phase. In this case, trading would likely range between $90,000 and $110,000 with investors holding on to their positions but refraining from making hefty additions. This could point toward a cautious sentiment lingering in the market, even while a longer-term outlook remains seemingly brighter.
A more bearish perspective might arise if the ratio falls to 0.75 or below. Such a move could trigger profit-taking among short-term holders, causing immediate pressure on Bitcoin’s price and potentially dragging it down to between $70,000 and $85,000. Despite the correction, Adler believes that the initial two scenarios posited are more likely, though wider macroeconomic risks such as fears of recession or international instability could influence the outcome considerably.
Bitcoin is currently valued at $96,130, keeping up its upward momentum after a recent rally from around $81,000 noted in mid-April. Analysis of the daily chart indicates strong momentum, with Bitcoin consolidating just beneath the $96K resistance level, a significant threshold that previously served as support earlier this year. A successful breakout through this resistance would facilitate a test of the psychological $100,000 milestone, with the next hurdle thereafter being $103,600.
It’s also notable that key moving averages—the 200-day simple moving average and the 200-day exponential moving average—have both been reclaimed, marking a definitive trend shift. However, the rally’s support would be bolstered by an uptick in buying pressure to confirm continuation. While current indicators suggest a bullish continuation in trend, traders should watch closely for a decisive break and close above the $96K to confirm sustained momentum.
In conclusion, while the market seems to lean bullish for now, caution is essential as Bitcoin approaches critical resistance levels. The upper range from $96K to $100K is recognised as an area where seller activity may increase significantly. The next few days are vital, and they could really dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory as we head into May.
