Today, nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, potentially causing significant market volatility. Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio indicates bearish sentiment, while Ethereum shows bullish signs. Despite concerns, analysts predict a positive trend for Bitcoin, hinting at possible price surges.
Today marks a significant day for cryptocurrency traders as approximately $3 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options will expire. This expiry event could lead to notable price fluctuations, so market participants are encouraged to stay vigilant and possibly reassess their trading strategies, especially around 8:00 UTC when the contracts settle.
Out of the total options expiring today, Deribit data indicates that 26,949 Bitcoin options are set to end, with a total notional value near $2.6 billion. A key point to watch is the so-called “maximum pain point” at $91,000, where many contracts may expire without any value, potentially causing losses for the majority of holders.
The current put-to-call ratio for Bitcoin stands at 1.01, hinting at a slightly bearish sentiment as there are more put sales than call purchases. On the flip side, Ethereum shows a more positive outlook, with a put-to-call ratio at 0.92. This suggests a generally bullish sentiment, as 184,296 Ethereum contracts with a total notional value of around $340.7 million also expire today. The maximum pain point for ETH is pegged at $1,800, while the coin is currently trading at $1,848 after a modest 2.27% jump since Friday.
Interestingly, though Bitcoin shows more calls being sold, analysts from Greeks.live suggest that overall market sentiment remains bullish. They note that many traders are eyeing a potential surge towards $100,000, pointing out relatively low volatility and the current market structure. Key levels of interest include the $96,000 Naked Point of Control (NPOC) and the $94,400 rolling Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP). However, some participants note concerns about the typical sell-in-May trend.
The low volatility environment seems to offer traders the chance to take long positions. Market makers are reportedly selling calls at 30% implied volatility (IV) to collect gamma. This strategy involves selling options to benefit from stable prices while handling minor price movements—all while profiting from premiums in a calm market environment.
Some traders are currently shorting Ethereum, which has underperformed relative to Bitcoin, while others are focusing on Bitcoin’s steady rise. This creates a varied strategy landscape, especially as many consider positions in July for vega gains, which occur when option prices increase due to rising market volatility.
Reports from Deribit analysts echo a sentiment of optimism regarding Bitcoin’s price trajectory, with accumulating BTC positions above $95,000 drawing attention. They question what effect today’s expiry will have on this stacking. At the moment, Bitcoin is trading at $97,108, showing gains of nearly 3% in the last 24 hours—a hopeful sign for those betting on future price increases.
That said, the expiry of options is often a catalyst for volatility. Just last week, for instance, the expiry of $8.05 billion in options led to short-term price consolidation in the market. Although fluctuations typically lessen post-expiry, observers should remain aware of potential price shifts until contracts settle around 8:00 UTC on Deribit.
