Arthur Hayes, BitMEX founder, predicts Bitcoin could hit $1 million by the end of 2028 due to increasing US monetary easing, an escalating budget deficit, and growing recognition of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset among institutional investors. He argues that government spending trends and the structural rise in social welfare obligations will ensure continued financial pressure, positively impacting Bitcoin’s value.
Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, has made a bold prediction regarding Bitcoin’s (BTC) future trajectory, suggesting it could soar to $1 million by 2028. In a recent chat aired on Kyle Chasse’s YouTube channel, he emphasised that the easing of monetary policies in the US would provide a significant boost to Bitcoin’s value. “We know you’re going to print more money; Bitcoin thrives when money is printed,” Hayes remarked, confidently declaring he can foresee Bitcoin’s rise better than he can predict the performance of various stocks.
Hayes connects this anticipated Bitcoin surge to what he describes as an ever-increasing US budget deficit. Post the presidential transition to Biden, he observed the deficit, bolstered by approximately $7.1 trillion in debt issuance, creating a positive backdrop for Bitcoin, which surged sixfold during a similar period of substantial fiscal expansion. According to Hayes, the trend of rising national debt is likely to persist regardless of governmental changes.
He pointed out that the government’s financial commitments are not only growing but are also heavily intertwined with essential services, particularly in Social Security and healthcare. Hence, Hayes believes stopping these payments isn’t an option, ensuring expenditures remain high. As he stated, with defence spending on the rise as well, the fiscal outlook for the US suggests a more extensive budget deficit is unavoidable.
Even if specific governmental plans aim for a modest 3% deficit by 2028, Hayes argues that the fundamental debt level means interest costs will continue to skyrocket. This leaves little chance for meaningful reductions in spending. “Mathematically, unless they opt to shut down the government—which doesn’t appear to be on the table—debt levels are just going to keep climbing,” he adds.
Moreover, Hayes notes that Bitcoin is increasingly being recognised as a safe-haven asset among investors. “We’ve now got an ETF; there’s a new narrative forming in the minds of institutional investors,” he asserted. They’re starting to view Bitcoin not only as a high-risk investment but as a hedge against the potential decline of US global dominance.
The changing perception could lead to more significant investments in Bitcoin, creating a favourable environment for its price to appreciate. “Maybe I should own some of this; it’s going to do well,” Hayes believes will become a common thought among investors looking for stability amid uncertainty.
