Bitcoin is currently testing critical support between $92,000 and $93,000 with hints of bearish pressure. Analyst Axel Adler points out short-term holders typically take profits once their NUPL exceeds 40%, but right now, the NUPL is only at 8%, which suggests minimal selling risk. Bitcoin’s trading around $94,158 and needs to remain above $90K for bullish momentum, with a breakout possibility above $100K depending on upcoming price movements.
Bitcoin is feeling the heat lately. The overall bullish vibe is starting to fade and sellers seem to be taking charge again. After a good run, BTC is now testing the very crucial support zone between $92,000 and $93,000, trying to confirm it as a base for future movement. If selling pressure keeps building, it could lead to a sharp correction below this area, indicating a potential downturn in the trend—something traders will be watching closely.
Top analyst Axel Adler made some interesting points about the behaviour of short-term holders in this phase of the bull cycle. These short-term holders, typically those owning Bitcoin for about 1 to 3 months, usually take profits once their Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) exceeds 40%. Historically, this has been a point where they offload their positions, increasing market supply and pushing down prices. Recently, Bitcoin has stuttered near the $98,000 mark, and with momentum starting to fizzle out, market participants are becoming more cautious.
The current structure of Bitcoin is still holding up, at least for now. However, it needs to maintain that key $92K support to keep the bullish narrative alive; a bounce from here could be what bulls need to regain momentum. But if it fails? Well, that could tilt sentiment more towards the bearish side. This means Bitcoin is at a critical juncture—what happens next could set the trend for quite a while.
The trading space has become a crucial range for Bitcoin—hitting below $90,000 could trigger a negative shift, whereas pushing above $100,000 could lead to a substantial new phase in the bull cycle. Following a lengthy period of selling since reaching its all-time high, BTC is seemingly showing some renewed strength. The move above $92K was significant, and now it’s up to the bulls to defend that level in order to build momentum for a breakout.
Market conditions continue to be a bit of a roller coaster, influenced by various macroeconomic uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions, which are causing erratic movements across both crypto and traditional markets. Yet, Bitcoin’s price structure indicates that, at least for now, bulls might be starting to gain the upper hand.
Adler also discussed the short-term holders again; they are typically the more aggressive market players, including professional speculators trading via ETF platforms. In this bull cycle, they usually take profits when their NUPL exceeds that 40% threshold, creating selling pressure. Currently, NUPL is at a mere 8%, with a 30-day simple moving average still negative—meaning short-term holders aren’t offloading big amounts just yet.
This low NUPL figure hints at minimal selling risk in the short term, which could reinforce a bullish narrative for Bitcoin. As long as NUPL stays low, there might be room for Bitcoin to keep climbing before any serious profit-taking takes place. The next few days are going to be crucial—if Bitcoin can hold above $90K and aim for $100K, it could pave the way for that much-anticipated breakout. But if it stumbles? It could lead to renewed weakness, which no one wants to see.
Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $94,158 following a slight dip from a recent local high close to $97,000. The daily charts show it’s still comfortably above the 200-day simple moving average, sitting around $90,542, and the 200-day exponential moving average at about $86,381. This suggests the overall trend remains bullish.
After breaking the key $90K barrier back in April, Bitcoin managed to rally up but now it’s in a consolidation phase just below the psychological resistance of $100K. Volumes appear to be tapering off, signifying a tug of war between buyers and sellers. Keeping above $92K is vital to maintain a bullish stance and could lead to renewed attempts at breaking toward $100K and, ultimately, the previous cycle high near $103,600.
However, if it drops below $92K, it could mean losing momentum and might push the price towards retesting the 200-day SMA near $90K, which is now crucial support and definitely on traders’ radar. So, while Bitcoin is structurally strong, the coming days—really, the next few candles—are going to be pivotal. A break above $97K could really set things off, while dropping below $90K might spell short-term trouble.
