Bitfinex’s recent report suggests Bitcoin’s bull cycle may still continue, contingent on broader economic stability. April 2025 saw BTC gain 14.08%, exceeding historical averages. Miners are holding onto reserves, indicating potential price appreciation. A crucial test lies around the $95,000 level, critical for determining the market’s future direction. Meanwhile, Bitcoin trades at $94,236, standing 13.4% below its high.
Bitfinex recently released a report suggesting that the current Bitcoin bull cycle might not be over yet. Key indicators show the potential for the rally to continue, but much depends on how broader macroeconomic factors stabilise. Short-term dips could still occur, yet the overall sentiment is looking positive, especially if Bitcoin can hover above significant technical levels — particularly the $95,000 mark.
April’s performance was notably strong for Bitcoin, with a 14.08% gain, surpassing its historical average of 13% and a median return of 7.3%. “April has historically been a good month for BTC, but recent years have been less exciting, which makes this year’s gains even more impressive,” the report mentioned. Earlier in the month, Bitcoin faced challenges after tariff announcements from President Trump sent the price tumbling to around $74,501.
However, Bitcoin’s price saw a turnaround later in April, boosted by concerns over inflation and a weaker dollar. It registered a remarkable rebound, climbing 32% from its earlier lows to reach local highs of $97,900. This strong performance showcased its resilience, especially in light of prevailing economic uncertainties, and indicated renewed investor confidence. On-chain data corroborated this bullish outlook.
Miner reserves have shown some stability, inching up from 1,808,315 BTC in December to 1,808,674 BTC by May 5. This modest rise suggests miners are holding onto their assets, a sign that they are anticipating future price increases rather than cashing in for operational expenses. The Puell Multiple also remained below 2, indicating miners do not view current prices as peaks, which is important given that they usually sell during significant rallies.
Bitfinex noted, “The fact that miners continue holding their BTC through this recent 32% recovery supports the notion that we may not have seen the last leg of the bull cycle yet,” despite recent volatility and the surrounding macroeconomic trends.
Looking ahead, Bitfinex highlighted a crucial test for Bitcoin: reclaiming the $95,000 level. This price point is not only vital for consolidation but also acts as a lower boundary of a three-month market range that shaped trading from November 2024 to February 2025. Successfully flipping $95,000 into a strong support level would point towards a bullish market trend and potentially set the stage for challenging all-time highs.
Failing to maintain this level could instead reintroduce it as a resistance point, leading to a short-term pullback. “The next few days are critical to determine whether Bitcoin’s recent strength transforms into a sustained breakout or a dip back to lower support zones,” the report stated.
The report also evaluated the current rally’s strength through the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, which tracks the average price at which recent buyers acquired BTC. Currently sitting at $93,340, Bitcoin has broken above this threshold, which could indicate short-term momentum. Yet, keeping this level will be key to whether the rally continues or wanes.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $94,236, showing a slight decline of 0.1% over the last day, and it remains 13.4% off its peak. The market is now watching closely to see if Bitcoin can bridge this gap.
Disclaimer: This report reflects the views of Bitfinex and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research before engaging in cryptocurrency trading.
