The crypto market is tense as Bitcoin waits for the FOMC meeting outcome on interest rates. Analysts anticipate the Fed will keep rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, with all eyes on Jerome Powell’s following remarks. Key trading ranges are being monitored, and traders exhibit a risk-off attitude, with possible volatility on the horizon depending on Powell’s tone. The upcoming decision is crucial amidst ongoing concerns over macroeconomic stability.
In anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, the crypto market holds its breath, especially Bitcoin (BTC). The US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates is critical, and traders are on high alert. Investors expect the Fed to keep rates steady at 4.25% – 4.5%, with a whopping 95.6% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This means all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech that follows the meeting.
Bitcoin’s price is currently hovering in the $94,000 range, and although many believe a rate hold is likely, it doesn’t necessarily mean calm waters. There is a volatile atmosphere right now. Bitcoin’s trading volume has seen a decline, and analysts at Swissblock describe the situation as a stiff “battle” of resistance. They point out negative funding rates and increased short positions indicating that bearish sentiment is creeping in.
The pivotal $97,000–$98,500 range is critical. According to Swissblock, if momentum builds, it could lead to panicking short sellers, which might push BTC higher. But there is a caution, warning of the potential for a bear trap flipping into a bull trap if traders lack conviction. The upcoming FOMC meeting is historically significant for risk assets, and many are recalling past meetings’ impacts on Bitcoin prices—three out of the last five decisions resulted in bullish market shifts. Yet, current uncertainties throw a curveball.
Traders still reckon with weak GDP prints, ongoing trade tensions, and rising inflation, further complicated by recent tariff talks. Veteran trader Mathew Dixon believes the Fed will hold rates this week, but the expectation of a hold for June is an equally essential point.
Market jitters are compelling as ambiguity looms. In December, Powell’s hawkish comments led to a massive downturn in risk assets—and many traders are anxious that history might repeat itself. “Bull markets don’t die of old age—they’re murdered by the Fed,” warned trader Jim, stressing the potential consequences of Powell’s forthcoming remarks on market psychology.
On the other hand, analysts like Michaël van de Poppe observe caution as gold’s recent surge signals an underlying risk-off sentiment. Van de Poppe mentioned, “We’re still seeing the risk-off mentality…expecting Ethereum to move upwards after Wednesday.”
Crypto analyst, known as Crypto Seth, is noticing more action amongst risk-taking traders as Bitcoin shows signs of stabilizing around $94,000. “There are positions being built up, yet market makers could push the price of Bitcoin down before making a move up,” he warned.
The macroeconomic landscape continues to be difficult to navigate. Trade relations between the US and China remain unresolved, affecting general consumption and market sentiment.
Market conditions could switch rapidly depending on Jerome Powell’s tone. Should Powell adopt a more dovish stance, potentially eyeing cuts this year, it might just set bears off guard, leading to upward moves. However, a commitment to hawkish policies could drag Bitcoin back to recent lows. For now, market participants remain in a state of limbo, waiting for the FOMC verdict to steer the course of Bitcoin.
As of this moment, Bitcoin stands at $94,474, edging down by 0.16% in the last 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto data. The sentiment is tense; all will be revealed post-FOMC meeting.
