Bitcoin Surges Past $96,000 Despite Fed Pressure: Insights on Upcoming Rally

Bitcoin’s price above $96,000 signals potential growth despite looming Fed decisions. The Risk-Off indicator is at a historic low, suggesting bullish trends ahead. Support levels remain strong around $94,500, while crypto miners adapt to economic changes. Analysts predict a possible Bitcoin rally to over $100,000, aided by institutional demand and positive macro trends.

Bitcoin (BTC) has crossed the $96,000 mark, showing a rise of 2.4% in the last 24 hours. This comes as investors and traders alike are bracing for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement set for May 7th. Despite some anticipated turbulence around this event, strong macroeconomic fundamentals and a surge in institutional interest hint that Bitcoin might be on the brink of a larger rally. There are also bullish indicators suggesting an upward trend may well surpass the $100,000 threshold soon.

The Bitcoin Risk-Off indicator has dropped to a record low of 23.7, a statistic that blends data on volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, and more. Historically, such lows often presage substantial bull runs. In fact, Bitcoin surged 1,550% to over $68,000 in 2021 after a previous instance of this indicator hitting similar depths. It does seem like we could be on a similar trajectory.

A notable support level seems to be forming around $94,500, as bullish traders appear keen to defend it. Recent on-chain metrics support this theory, revealing an increase in long bets in the futures markets, primarily clustering around $94,400. Despite some market swings, Bitcoin futures have seen open interest rise by about $189 million recently, along with a significant 15% uptick in trading volume. It’s clear there’s a thirst for Bitcoin.

Now, turning to what today’s FOMC decision might do, regardless of the outcome, the environment seems to bode well for Bitcoin. The US Dollar Index recently dipped below 100 for the first time since July 2023. Gold prices have surged over 12% in the past month, inching closer to record highs. Treasury futures currently reflect a robust 76% chance of interest rate cuts by September—all factors that could further solidify Bitcoin’s standing as a store of value. Economists, like Jim Paulsen, also note that current Fed funds could signal an impending economic slowdown, which typically would encourage rate cuts or liquidity measures which favour Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin mining sector is adjusting post the halving event that occurred in April 2024. Riot Platforms, the second-largest publicly traded miner, recently made headlines by selling 475 BTC valued at $38.8 million to maintain operations and reduce shareholder dilution. CEO Jason Les insists this was a tactical move, highlighted by Riot’s robust reserves of 19,211 BTC still intact on the balance sheet, worth around $1.8 billion.

Additionally, various indicators are suggesting that Bitcoin is geared up to potentially soar past the $100,000 figure in the not-too-distant future. The Macro Chain Index’s recent buy signal is compelling, particularly as it previously signalled the market bottom in 2022 when Bitcoin was at $15,500. Although network activity has seen some decline — reflecting fewer transactions and addresses — macro indicators are looking positive. Bitcoin’s volatility, showing reduced fluctuation, reinforces the asset’s maturation; it dropped 80% in realized volatility between 2019 and 2025.

With 9% of Bitcoin’s supply already held by ETFs and public companies, it appears that institutional adoption continues to grow, positioning Bitcoin well within the scope of mainstream financial stability amid global economic unrest.