Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting could significantly influence Bitcoin’s price, with expectations of unchanged rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments will be key, amid political pressure for lower borrowing costs. Analysts predict potential price volatility, with outcomes hinging on Powell’s guidance. Current trends show Bitcoin consolidating around $94,097 as traders weigh the implications of economic indicators.
As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gears up to unveil its decision on May 7, Bitcoin traders are bracing for a pivotal moment that could shape the market’s trajectory through the summer. Chair Jerome Powell is widely expected to maintain the fed-funds rate between 4.25 and 4.50 percent, with the CME Group’s FedWatch tool showing a 98.2 percent likelihood of no change. However, political pressures, including calls from President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for lower borrowing rates, have added a layer of uncertainty.
In his recent comments, Powell indicated that the Fed is taking a measured approach, stating on April 16 that the labour market remains in decent condition. He stressed the importance of anchoring long-term inflation expectations and avoiding a temporary spike in prices becoming a persistent issue. This focus on price stability persists, even as signs of an economic slowdown suggest a likely shift to easier policies in the latter part of the year.
Looking at Bitcoin, the discussion is shifting from whether the Fed will change its posture to how liquidity and market behaviour will respond to Powell’s press conference. Crypto trader Josh Rager advised his audience on X to expect volatility following the rate decision, hinting at potential intraday swings depending on Powell’s tone during the announcement.
Furthermore, crypto analyst Astronomer (@astronomer_zero) shared insights about a potential price reversal, citing a model that has accurately predicted outcomes in over 85 percent of instances. However, he warned that the ongoing upward trend for Bitcoin may weaken these signals, projecting a 76 percent chance that prices will continue to rise, whereas a shallow pullback has a 24 percent probability.
Columbus (@columbus0x) is analysing market conditions with a focus on liquidations, suggesting a possible swift decline into a key demand zone highlighted on the Hyblock heat-map. This area aligns with a critical Fibonacci retracement level from a recent swing low, indicating potential short-lived wicks that traders might experience.
Should Powell adopt a more hawkish stance in his remarks, Columbus predicts a dip below the current low, potentially retesting the 200-day simple moving average and closing up gaps between $91.8 and $92.4k. Regardless of these potential swings, he asserts the overall trend remains bullish.
Momentum indicators play a crucial role too. Observations from Titan of Crypto indicate that Bitcoin is currently range-bound, consolidating between its recent highs and lows ahead of the FOMC announcement. A bearish crossing on the daily MACD may support ideas of a minor pullback, echoing sentiments shared by Astronomer and Columbus. Yet, the ongoing consolidation phase offers some encouragement for traders with longer-term perspectives.
In totality, tomorrow’s FOMC decision, while seemingly straightforward, could pivot on Powell’s guidance and how it could influence future interest rate trajectories. Should he advocate for patience while acknowledging easing economic data, the market may start anticipating cuts in June, thus providing a lift for bulls. Conversely, any signs of renewed focus on inflation could ignite short-term bearish sentiment, particularly if Bitcoin falls below $92k. The overall market appears fragile, with thin liquidity and the critical $100,000 strike zone drawing attention as the narrative surrounding an easing cycle collides with the Fed’s immediate objectives.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin is trading at $94,097, with traders closely monitoring the FOMC developments for further directional cues.
