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New Bitcoin Whales Capture Majority Share of Bitcoin Capital

A recent report indicates that New Bitcoin Whales now control 52.4% of Bitcoin’s whale realised capital, surpassing Old Whales for the first time. Bitcoin’s price is near $96,800, influenced by new investments. With the higher average purchase price of New Whales, their selling behaviour could cause significant market fluctuations.

A recent report from CryptoQuant has revealed some intriguing shifts in the Bitcoin market. New short-term “New Whales” have now taken a commanding lead, holding 52.4% of Bitcoin’s whale realised capital. This marks an unprecedented moment as they surpass long-term holders for the first time. With Bitcoin trading just shy of $96,800, it seems fresh capital influx is contributing to these high price levels.

Understanding realised cap is crucial here; it measures each Bitcoin at the price it last moved on-chain. According to CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn, addresses that have been active over the past 155 days are classified as New Whales. Meanwhile, older addresses no longer fit the Old Whale category. Intriguingly, the average cost basis for New Whales stands at $91,922, which is dramatically higher than the $31,765 average for Old Whales. This change in capital distribution signals a potential shift in market dynamics.

Historically, from 2015 through late 2019, New Whales accounted for less than 5% of the whale realised cap as Bitcoin prices surged from a mere $200 to $10,000. Fast forward to the 2020-2021 bull run and that figure climbed towards 25%, fueled by both retail investors and institutional interest. However, the subsequent bear market from 2021-2022 saw New Whale participation drop to below 10%. That being said, recovery in 2023 and early 2024 brought their share up to about 20%.

Since mid-2024, Bitcoin’s price trajectory has been nothing short of spectacular, escalating from $30,000 to the enticing $100,000 mark. This surge is accompanied by a notable increase in New Whales’ market share, soaring from 20% to 52.4%. Simultaneously, the realised cap for Old Bitcoin Whales now sits at just 47.6%, illustrating a significant realignment.

But what does this development mean for Bitcoin’s future price movements? The data from CryptoQuant indicates a clear trend: the largest holders of Bitcoin right now are those who bought in at significantly higher prices recently. More than half of the whale-level capital currently comprises coins that have moved within the last five months. These new whale purchases, particularly around the $90,000 mark, are largely responsible for pushing Bitcoin’s price towards $97,000. Their demand has catalysed much of the recent rise.

One significant factor to consider is that New Whales’ average purchase price hovers around $92,000, leaving them with relatively minimal unrealised gains. If Bitcoin prices were to dip beneath this cost level, it could trigger swift selling, thereby exerting downward pressure on the market. In contrast, long-term whales, who entered at an average price of $31,000, have little incentive to sell right now. This dynamic tightens supply from this group, potentially stabilising prices.

In summary, the current strength of Bitcoin appears to rest heavily on these high-cost New Buyers. Should they choose to hold onto their assets, it may foster a conducive environment for price upward movement. Conversely, if they begin to offload assets around their break-even point, be prepared for increased volatility and sharper price corrections.

Shanice Murray is a dynamic multimedia journalist with a passion for storytelling through various platforms. Originally from Jamaica, she completed her studies at the University of the West Indies before relocating to the United States to further her career in journalism. With over 10 years of experience in both print and digital media, Shanice has earned multiple awards for her innovative approaches to reporting on cultural issues and human interest stories.

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